SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Artificial intelligence is shaping the future of warfare, and the U.S. is lagging way behind. That is the view of Admiral Gary Roughead, who recently wrote about this in the Military Times. Admiral Roughead is a former Navy officer who served as the chief of naval operations and commanded both the U.S. Atlantic and Pacific fleets. And he argues that China is rapidly building their AI military technology, and the U.S. needs to catch up. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
GARY ROUGHEAD: Well, thank you, Scott.
DETROW: You know, I said it's shaping the future of warfare, but is that accurate? Is it more the present of warfare when it comes to artificial intelligence?
ROUGHEAD: Well, I think we're in the early stages and it's beginning to shape it. But I think we're just at the front end of what is going to be a pretty significant change in warfare, and even more broadly, in so many different sectors of our daily lives.
DETROW: This is a theoretical conversation, and I'm hoping you can help listeners understand what exactly we're talking about. People think about tanks and jets and artillery and missiles when it comes to war. How does AI fit into all of that? What are we specifically talking about here?
ROUGHEAD: Well, I would say AI is going to give us the speed that - the likes of which we've never seen before in how we move information, how we analyze information, how we make decisions, how we determine what the best options might be in a particular situation, and to be able to do it in ways that the human mind simply can't approach.
DETROW: I mean, we've seen headlines from both Ukraine and Gaza about AI being used to preliminarily identify targets of mortar and airstrikes and things like that. Is that what we're talking about here?
ROUGHEAD: Definitely that. I think it will be heavily used in intelligence and being able to analyze the battle space very quickly to be able to determine where an anomaly is, to potentially predict what some of the courses of action would be, what some of the possible movements would be, and then being able to distil down and come up with the best solution to counter a particular threat. Even though we lead in many areas of research, what I believe is necessary is that we begin to start fielding some of these systems. And in the piece that I wrote, I particularly focused on the next generation of fighter aircraft as a means of being able to start on this journey of integrating artificial intelligence into some of the more traditional types of platforms.
DETROW: But, Admiral, I think some people might hear that and have concerns. Especially, frankly, I feel like there's a lot of pop culture about artificial intelligence and warfare that goes very poorly. I mean, when you're talking about the things that people are using AI for in the real world, are there downsides? Are there risks to plowing forward without pausing each time to really think through what it is that's exactly being put in place?
ROUGHEAD: Well, I think there's a difference between pausing each time and not moving ahead aggressively. My point being is, I think we should begin to move ahead aggressively. We should pause when we want to examine success or failure. And I would also argue that we need to be operating on a much faster decision cycle than we currently are. As a former Navy person, I think that the undersea area is a place where artificial intelligence can be employed - the ability to discern different targets in something that is not as clear as what you would see on a radar. I think that there are significant applications for artificial intelligence in undersea warfare, particularly as you're trying to analyze the acoustic conditions, the thermal conditions that might exist, being able to sense what may be on the bottom one day, and then what has changed the next day.
DETROW: I did want to specifically ask about China and what you wrote about China because, you know, you're highlighting that China is quickly developing its AI military capabilities. And you made a point, as somebody who once commanded the U.S. Pacific Fleet, that you saw this threat firsthand. Can you paint a picture for us of what this looks like right now, what this could look like in a few years?
ROUGHEAD: What they have been able to do in a couple of decades is really quite extraordinary. Early on, when they realized that warfare was going to become much more technology-driven than it had in the past, they began to go down a path of intelligentized warfare. I would also say that they are much more likely to try and fail and regroup quickly and move on again. I do not believe that they are as risk averse as we have become. And again, I'm not saying that it needs to be done in a reckless way. It needs to be done in a pragmatic way. It needs to be done quickly. And the phrase I use is that we have to make haste slowly.
DETROW: What would your best estimate be of what the window is that the U.S. has to make these changes and catch up, in your mind, to China?
ROUGHEAD: I would say that we are in the period now where if we do not begin to accelerate, then there is a possibility that we could be outpaced in some of these areas. But I would say that if we are not seriously fielding some prototype systems in the next four to five years, I think we are going to be disadvantaged.
DETROW: Admiral Gary Roughead is the former chief of naval operations. Admiral, thank you so much.
ROUGHEAD: Thank you very much, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
