AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The war in the Middle East appears to be widening almost one year after Hamas launched its attack on Israel. Today Iran sent a volley of missiles at Israel, an aerial assault that comes just days after Israel killed the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in Lebanon. For more on what might unfold from here, we caught up earlier today with General Frank McKenzie, former commander of United States Central Command. I asked him if he had a sense of Iran's calculations in launching today's attacks and what it all might mean for the wider region.
FRANK MCKENZIE: The long-term goal of all Iranian foreign policy is regime preservation. They want to preserve the clerical regime. They don't want to get themselves into a situation where that regime is actually subject to direct attack by Israel or the United States or anyone else. So I'm a little surprised they're actually doing this right now because, to be honest with you, I doubt their ability to have genuine success in this attack. And now the Israelis will have the option to retaliate. And the Israelis possess far more retaliatory options against Iran than Iran does against Israel.
So I'm a little puzzled at this attack, although I would say they've been pushed into a corner a bit by, you know, largely, the decapitation of their major ally, Lebanese Hezbollah. Things are not going well for them in Lebanon. Things did not go well for them in April when they launched the last attack on Israel. So you could see that Iranian thinking could be they need to do something now. Just you've got to be very careful. If you're going to do something, it needs to have a meaningful effect. If it doesn't have a meaningful effect, you're going to be in worse shape than you were when you began.
CHANG: Well, just to put this in very real terms for people on the ground in Israel, what are the risks that they are facing at the moment? Obviously, these strikes are deadly or could be deadly. Can you just describe for people who are listening what are the immediate, direct risks for people on the ground in Israel?
MCKENZIE: Sure. Well, people need to be under shelter, and that's when they sound the air raid sirens. You need to be undercover because even a successful intercept - there's still a lot of iron that's going to fall from the sky. And the other thing is, as you look at these missiles impacting - and I'm seeing some impact - remember that Iron Dome, Patriot, other systems make a calculation about intercepting a missile. If the missile is not headed for a populated area or a vital target, you're going to let the missile continue on its track and explode harmlessly.
So when you see missiles hit the ground, sometimes people think, well, they're having success - well, not necessarily because if the missile is not going for a vital area, which is in the ballistic computers that look at the track on the missile, you might let it go on. There's a lot of stuff falling from the sky. People should take cover. Listen to notifications from the air defense system there, which is very good, very well plugged in. And we'll keep people apprised of what's going on.
CHANG: Well, as you look ahead, can you just tell me what is top of mind, your most immediate concern as you're thinking about how these simultaneous conflicts are unfolding right now?
MCKENZIE: Sure. I think the thing that people's mind will turn to next - what will be the Israeli response? It will be scoped to what happens in this attack. So if there's significant damage done in this attack, then I would look, I think, for a very large Israeli response. And they've demonstrated that they have the ability to do it. They've demonstrated they have the ability to operate almost with impunity over Tehran. They did that in April after the 13 April Iranian attack on Israel.
So they have a lot of options if they want to take this war and really impose a significant punishment on Tehran. And so, you know, I think - again, I think, though, that will be scoped and scaled to what happens in the attack that is - we're still in the attack period right now.
CHANG: You said Israel has multiple options. What are those options, at this moment, to respond?
MCKENZIE: Well, Israel has the ability to respond with - you know, with airstrikes. They have their own missile force. They have a variety of cyber options that are all available to them. Remember; in the aftermath of the 13 April attack, they demonstrated profound technological superiority over Iran by operating essentially unmolested in the Tehran-Isfahan Corridor over Iran's most sensitive nuclear targets. And Iran was unable to prevent them from doing that. So Israel has lots of choices here should they choose to respond.
CHANG: That was General Frank McKenzie, former commander of United States Central Command and executive director of the University of South Florida's Global and National Security Institute. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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