SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
The past year has transformed the Middle East. But on October 6 of last year, the day before the Hamas-led attacks on Israel, the region's calculations and people's lives looked very different. We are joined now by NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawy, who's based in Dubai, to take us through what that looked like and what has changed. Hey, there.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Hey, Scott.
DETROW: I remember talking to you on October 7, 8, and 9 and so many times during that intense week. But let's go back to October 6. What was the situation like that day?
BATRAWY: Yeah, Scott. So in Israel, Jewish families were gathering for a holiday weekend, and young Israelis were gathering for an overnight rave near the border with Gaza, a concert where hundreds would be killed on October 7. And Israelis were divided. That whole year saw huge protests calling on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign. Israeli troops, meanwhile, were raiding Palestinian towns in the occupied West Bank, hunting militants, and it was already on course to be the deadliest year for Palestinians in decades. And Scott, the expansion of Jewish settlements was being directed by a far-right government, among them settler ministers. This is the most hard-line government in Israel's history. And so Arab governments, including Israel's ally, the United Arab Emirates, they were warning against this, calling it incitement and escalation.
DETROW: And what is the best way to describe what life was like in Gaza under Hamas rule before the war?
BATRAWY: So a years-long blockade had stifled life there for more than 2 million people. And every few years, they'd be rocked by another war or conflict with Israel, fleeing their homes, sheltering in schools, burying their dead. But life, as difficult as it was, it went on. You know, people were getting married. They were having kids, graduating, starting small businesses. And Israel's government believed Hamas did not want another war and that the militant group was focused on supporting Palestinian fighters in the West Bank. And there was also some economic relief coming to Gaza. Israel had given tens of thousands of laborers in Gaza permits to work in Israel.
DETROW: And let's broaden out and talk about the rest of the region because one of the things, you know, I've thought a lot about and so many other people have is - what was going on in Saudi Arabia especially? - and the fact that they seemed to be on the cusp of a historic breakthrough with Israel.
BATRAWY: Yeah, it did seem that way. It was after the UAE and Bahrain established ties with Israel under President Trump. It seemed like the Palestinian issue - their demands for sovereignty and statehood - had become a footnote. You know, there were no peace talks and no efforts toward a Palestinian state. And so Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, he was focused on transforming his country, and he was recalibrating the country's relation. And the crown prince was in talks with the Biden administration for a security pact with the U.S. in exchanged for ties with Israel.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED FOX NEWS BROADCAST)
CROWN PRINCE MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN: For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part.
BATRAWY: So that's the crown prince speaking to Fox News just two weeks before the October 7 attacks. And he's asked where talks to establish ties with Israel stood.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED FOX NEWS BROADCAST)
BIN SALMAN: Every day, we get closer. It seems it's for the first time a real one, serious. We're going to see how it goes.
BATRAWY: And it didn't appear that Saudi Arabia was demanding any meaningful concessions from Israel toward a two-state solution as part of this deal.
DETROW: And we, of course, now had a year-long war in Gaza. We are seeing an escalation of hostilities in Lebanon. There's been missile exchanges with Iran, among other things. Given all of that, where do those efforts stand now, a year on?
BATRAWY: Behind the scenes Scott, the U.S. is still coordinating among its allies. But all indications are that, you know, these talks are on ice. There's not going to be a so-called Saudi peace deal with Israel as long as there's a war with Palestinians. And after the Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia set a very clear tone. It said it had been warning of the consequences of an explosive situation and of continued Israeli occupation.
DETROW: And let's talk about Egypt then because they're a key player here. They, along with Qatar, have been a key mediator in negotiations over the past year about any sort of agreement that would free captives and put an end to the war. That border between Egypt and Gaza, though, has become a sticking point in cease-fire talks. Tell us why.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTERS: (Chanting in non-English language).
BATRAWY: So Egyptians in this protest in April, they were shouting in support of Palestinians, and they were calling on Egypt's government to get more aid into Gaza through its border. They were chanting, Zionists will not rule us. But Scott, let me also take you to that border. I visited Egypt's side of the Gaza crossing in Rafah those first weeks of the war. A long line of trucks were slowly making their way into Gaza, and they were carrying bottled water, canned food, tents, medicine for people trapped inside. And now that border has been sealed shut for the past six months, ever since Israeli troops took control on Gaza's side, and Egypt is demanding that Israeli forces withdraw from there.
DETROW: You know, it's interesting. Jimmy Carter just had his hundredth birthday, and it was in the news, and the agreement he was able to help broker between Egypt and Israel has been such an important cornerstone in the Middle East over many decades now. But is it fair to say that this conflict has really, really strained the relationship between Egypt and Israel?
BATRAWY: Yes, absolutely. I mean, it is a cornerstone of, you know, U.S. interests in the region, this peace accord, and Egypt has made threats over the past year quietly, you know, to withdraw its ambassador and to pull out of this peace accord. But it hasn't done these things. In fact, trade is up. Egypt is importing more gas from Israel to meet its basic energy needs. But look; whether in street cafes or upscale neighborhoods in Cairo, people are watching this war. I spoke with Professor Noha Bakr - she's an expert on Egypt's peace accord with Israel - when I was in Cairo, and I asked her for her thoughts.
NOHA BAKR: What's happening now has eradicated all our efforts, me and others, working on peace building and conflict resolution. We're going back. We're going back on all this. It took years for us to see, to see that we can live together.
DETROW: Let's end the conversation by looking forward. This war has now expanded into Lebanon. Israeli attacks have killed more than a thousand people there since mid-September. People are displaced on both sides of that border. And also, Israel and Iran are threatening more attacks on one another. A year on, is the region on the brink of a broader open war?
BATRAWY: Actually, no one knows where this is headed. And so countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, for years, they tried to cut into Iran's network of proxies from Lebanon to Yemen. But they have made no statements of outrage, of course, you know, over Israel's strikes on Yemen's Houthis or its assassination of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. But concerns are growing. Qatar hosted Iran's president the day after Iran hit Israel with missiles this week. And while he was there, he met with the Saudis because the waterways of the Gulf are crucial to oil supplies. Any disruption to that would impact economies here and prices around the world.
DETROW: That is NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawy, joining us from Dubai, looking back and looking forward a year on from October 7. Thank you so much.
BATRAWY: Thanks, Scott, for having me here a year later. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
