Tampa’s inflation rate is now among the lowest in the country compared to other major metro areas.
Between September of 2023 and November of 2024, prices grew at a rate of 1.6% for the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan statistical area (MSA), according to the latest consumer price data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In a WalletHub analysis of consumer price data, price growth in Tampa ranked 18 out of 23 for U.S. metro areas with the biggest inflation problem.
“Tampa’s inflation trends are on par with other low-inflation areas,” WalletHub analyst Chip Lugo said.
Tampa’s minimal year-over-year price growth, at 1.6%, was similar to inflation rates in the Phoenix and Houston metro areas. Topping the charts with the most upward pressure on prices were metro areas that include New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles, according to the analysis.
John Shannon, a research economist at Florida Gulf Coast University, said the picture of inflation in Tampa looked drastically different a couple of years ago.
Like many areas across the country, consumer prices steadily climbed in 2021.
"When we started seeing those price increases, they were a three-headed monster in terms of inflation, right? We had housing price increases, we had food and beverage increases, and we also had transportation increases,” Shannon said.
Inflation peaked in May of 2022 for the Tampa metro area, with prices growing at a rate of 11.3%, outpacing the national average.
While the opposite is now true, with cooler inflation in the Tampa metro than nationally, Shannon said consumers shouldn’t expect rollbacks in the price of goods and services.
“Just because the [Consumer Price Index] has come down, that doesn’t mean that rents have come down. It just means that the growth isn’t growing as much,” he said.
In other words, he said consumers shouldn’t expect pre-2021 prices to make a return.
The latest consumer spending data shows food and housing costs are among the biggest drivers of inflation for the Tampa metro area while consumers are seeing some relief from home energy costs.
Nationally, the short-term increase in consumer prices — from 2.7% to 2.9% in December of 2024 — isn't likely to have consequences for federal policy, Florida Atlantic University economist William Luther said.
“The inflation uptick observed in December means workers’ wages were stretched thin last month. But it does not imply the Fed cut rates too much too soon or should further slow the pace of rate cuts penciled in for 2025,” he said.
Ahead of next week's decision on federal interest rates, Luther said he predicts monetary policy will remain tight and that inflation will continue to cool nationally, “though perhaps not steadily enough to afford forecasters a good night’s sleep.”
Gabriella Paul covers the stories of people living paycheck to paycheck in the greater Tampa Bay region for WUSF. She's also a Report for America corps member. Here’s how you can share your story with her.
