As the number of COVID-19 cases rises in Florida, vaccination rates lag behind, and that is concerning health experts.
In 2021, the first full year a COVID-19 vaccine was available, 15 million Floridians received a vaccine. But this year, a little over 400,000 have received a booster, despite the virus's summer spike.
“I think that people at this point have a little bit less concern about getting infected with COVID,” said Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist at the University of Central Florida. “I don't think they’re necessarily correct.”
Hospitalizations and emergency department visits are increasing throughout the country, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The numbers and the severity
Meanwhile, in Florida, monthly case totals increased to 94,000 in July – the highest of the year, according to the state Department of Health. June reported a total of 38,000 cases.
The majority of cases reported are the highly transmissible omicron subvariant strains.
While the virus spreads quickly, it doesn’t pack the same punch that it used to for most people, said Jerne Shapiro a professor of epidemiology at the University of Florida.
“The virus no longer infects the lower part of our lungs and upper part of our respiratory system, which has really decreased the number of individuals that die from COVID and the number of individuals that require hospitalization,” she said.
With a higher infection but lower severity comes a less-perceived risk for the general population, which is one the reasons vaccine levels are probably low, Shapiro said.
“However, there is still a portion of the population that is at an increased risk for severe outcomes,” including those with autoimmune deficiencies or 65 and older, Shapiro said. “That is where we really want to make sure those individuals understand that they're at risk and understand how to access the vaccine.”
Why are vaccine rates lower?
Vaccine rates have been dropping since their 2021 peak in Florida. A number of factors are responsible, like COVID news fatigue and people not keeping up to date with vaccines, Prins said.
She thinks time has also warped people’s memories of what it’s like to have COVID.
“I think that's another thing that we tend to forget, that it can be a really miserable disease, and even if you didn't have a bad bout of it last time if you get it this time, you may have a lot more problems with it, and you may feel quite miserable,” Prins said.
The rising rate of COVID and the low rate of vaccines represent a larger threat to those in a risk group.
Why it's a problem
What concerns Shapiro is the combination of high case rates and low vaccine levels as schools get ready to bring students back into the classroom. Most children are not at risk for severe infection, but they may have family members who are. Additionally, more COVID cases could strain the medical system, she said.
“We are testing. We're seeing those increases, and we are also seeing an increase in our emergency department visits,” Shapiro said. “We can expect, as our early indicators show, increased positivity, increased COVID rates, that our hospitalization and deaths will continue to increase over the next few weeks, maybe even a month or two.”
Epidemiologists don’t have a lot of historical data for COVID, but the past two years have shown summer spikes followed by a drop in cases before Thanksgiving. Prins is hopeful that this will happen again.
Although, she’s still concerned.
If trends hold, and COVID vaccines continue to become less popular while the virus is allowed to mutate and keep infecting, she’s not sure what kind of future that presents Florida and its medical system.
“If you have more transmissible and more variants that are a little bit scarier in terms of health outcomes, and people have this mindset of 'I don't need the vaccine.' I think that's where we potentially run into a problem and a concern if people are not wanting to get vaccinated,” she said.
Current guidelines
The CDC advises that everyone age 6 months to 64 years should receive one vaccine a year. Those 65 and older and those with immune deficiencies should receive it twice a year.
The Florida Department of Health advises only those over 65 or in a risk group to get the vaccine.
The vaccine is available at most pharmacies and grocery stores. A new vaccine is expected to come out in the fall to protect against winter strains.
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