After what seems like a years-long slog of campaigning and build-up, the 2024 election is coming to a close. But when will the results start coming in and when will we know the outcome?
WUSF news director Mary Shedden speaks to "Our Changing State" host Mathew Peddie about when you can expect to know the final results.
“Weary voters may be hoping this election will be decided swiftly, but the election doesn't end on election day,” said Peddie, in reference to what happened in 2020.
“Pennsylvania did not declare its winner for four days. That's because they don't count anything, whether it's early votes, mail-in ballots or anything until the polls close on Tuesday night,” said Shedden. “That Pennsylvania announcement four days later triggered many states and media organizations like the Associated Press to declare unofficially that Joe Biden won the race, but states like Georgia and Arizona were so close that that triggered automatic recounts.”
Recounting in 2020 meant results ended up taking several more weeks to declare a winner. Similarly, we might not hear the results right away this year.
The ballot counting process
Using Florida as an example, Shedden explained how results are issued.
“They count their mail-in ballots and early voting. They start that on the Monday before the election, and on Tuesday, individual precincts hold their voting from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.,” said Shedden. “Those precincts have literal boxes of paper tabulations that are brought to the 67 county offices and they're tabulated. Those boxes can trickle in literally all night long, depending on how far away they are, and then two days later, starts the process of reviewing provisional and cured ballots.”
This is not to mention chances of a recount, which in Florida is triggered if the margin between candidates is 0.5% or less of the total votes cast.
Florida is not among the swing states that people are watching closely this year, but where Florida stands is not concrete till the end.
“While the polls are saying it's not close, we have no idea. That's the beauty of our democracies. We have no idea until each individual voter ballot is counted,” said Shedden.
Voting populations
Shedden referenced 2020 statistics to shed light on potential voting turnouts.
“Nationwide, 66% of the electorate voted,” said Shedden. “If we look at the 244 million Americans eligible to vote today, that means we could see more than 162 million people deciding this presidential race.”
With each vote holding more weight than ever in a race with expected razor-thin margins, legal challenges are anticipated.
“We have the official timeline of when votes need to be certified, when electoral college votes need to be turned in, and when they need to be certified,” said Shedden. “The fact is, we should expect dozens, if not hundreds, of lawsuits in not just the presidential race, but probably in a lot of closely contested races across the country.”
“So the most important thing you probably need to know, other than being patient, is realizing that all those machinations are about the sides fighting so that ultimately your vote hopefully will be counted clearly. It will be specific, and it will matter,” said Shedden.
Key dates
“We have the key date, which is election day, on November 5. The certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors is issued that's basically saying, ‘What did each state decide?’ " said Shedden. “The majority of the votes means that the Electoral College voters go to that candidate on December 11. There will be lawsuits probably in between the meeting and the electors will actually vote within their states on December 17.”
“They have to turn in those votes by December 25 and then on January 6, Congress will officially count and certify the electoral votes for president of the United States,” said Shedden.
