After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance last week, state political experts and operatives of all party affiliation are more skeptical of his already slim chances of winning Florida in his reelection bid. Some are concerned that a lackluster showing in November from Biden could spell down ballot disaster for Florida Democrats.
During the June 27 faceoff with former President Donald Trump, Biden gave halting and nonsensical answers and trailed off at times. Questions immediately swirled about whether this was a pattern that would make it difficult to govern. Pressure from Democrats has built for the 81-year-old to remove himself from the race.
Republicans in Florida have been doing a victory lap in the debate's aftermath. That includes Gov. Ron DeSantis, who compared the president's debate appearance to when he defeated Trump four years earlier.
“It's been a really significant decline, and the idea that that decline is going to stop, that somehow you can make it to age 86 given the trajectory is a joke, and everybody knows that's a joke,” he said.
The debate even stunned Democrats, like political consultant Kevin Cate, a former campaign spokesperson former President Barack Obama
“The debate performance was awful. Everyone, including the president, has acknowledged that, and I think that that has ramifications nationwide, and that includes Florida,” he said.
Leaked internal polling has the president losing seven of the swing states that were key to his 2020 victory over Trump by even larger margins after the debate.
Recent polling has Biden trailing Trump by 10 points in Florida.
While it was unlikely the president would win Florida before the debate, state Democrats have been hoping to use a strong top-of-the-ticket draw to turn the tides in several local races. University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewitt said keeping turnout high is key.
“If Democratic turnout rises to very solid levels, they ought to be able to pick up maybe one Senate seat in the Tallahassee area. Maybe six or eight House seats in the Florida Legislature, because there were 13 seats that Democrats lost in the Florida House that were won by Biden. And the reason they lost is because turnout was so dreadful in 2022,” he said.
But to Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida, a Biden candidacy means Democrats won’t get that enthusiasm from their base.
“I see Joe Biden being a lot like Charlie Crist in his way to turn the way he turns out voters, whether it's Black, the Black voting population, or whether general, hard-core Democrat voters are not going to be inspired by a guy who's not capable of leading the nation any longer,” he said.
If Biden does stay in the race, then young people in Florida may stay home, said political analyst and University of South Florida professor emerita Susan MacManus. She says the question many are considering is not Trump or Biden, but whether to even show up to vote.
“OK, if I vote, who am I going to vote for? But really, am I going to vote at all? That's the big question. And there are a lot of people in Florida that are in that category, because 34% of our voters registered right now are millennials and Gen Zers. And you know, they're showing not much attention to this race already,” she said.
Florida Democrats are hoping ballot initiatives for abortion rights and recreational marijuana will also help with turnout. But Barry University political science professor Sean Foreman isn’t convinced it will help Biden. He anticipates many Floridians who show up to vote on the ballot initiatives either plan on voting for Trump, a third-party candidate or no one on the presidential ticket.
“I don't think they can count on the amendments carrying Biden to the top. They just have to hope that they get good turnout in the right pockets of the state to win local races,” Foreman notes.
Democrats across the country are having conversations about whether Biden should even stay on the ticket.
Cate, the Democrat consultant, thinks party messaging going forward should not be centered on Biden and more on attacking Trump.
“The real message the Democrats need to be spreading right now is, get registered. Get ready. Democracy is on the line, and whether it's President Biden or somebody else's name at the top of the ticket, we have to do everything in our power to keep a felon, potential dictator from the White House,” Cate said.
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