With President Joe Biden's decision to not seek a second term and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democrat nominee, their party must navigate a shift that is unprecedented this late in an election year.
Susan MacManus is a professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida, says women and young voters are crucial demographics in Florida who could back someone like Harris instead of Biden.
WUSF: Do you think this changes the dynamic of the vote any way in Florida?
MacManus: I do. There are certain races on down ballot that could be close, if it looks like money might start rolling into them if they have a better chance of winning. So I see the biggest impact of this shift on people running for Congress for the state Legislature, (U.S.) House and Senate, and also for some local partisan officers.
So you have talked in the past about young people who are one of the main demographics in the state turned off by having two octogenarians or near-octogenarians on the ballot. Do you think this will motivate some of the younger voters having somebody like Kamala Harris on the ballot to actually get out there and vote?
I do think that younger people, a certain proportion, will be more engaged and more likely to vote, in a way, what this resignation of President Biden does is create the opportunity for a brand new slate. And we've seen for months on end that a sizable portion of Americans don't like either (former President Donald) Trump or Biden. So Kamala Harris has a chance to, with her selection of her running mate, pick a fresh ticket that will be younger, and certainly younger people are repeatedly calling for a new generation of leadership. So it's an opportunity there. It does not mean, however, that every single young person will rush to her because in Florida, right now, in terms of registration, there's only like a 1% difference in millennials and Gen Z'ers that are registered as Democrats and Republicans. More are registered as no party affiliation.
Do you see any backlash about having Harris on the ballot from people who have not been enthusiastic about her in the past? Or maybe they believe she's too tied to Biden in that it's not that much of a change in the policies that will be enacted, if she does get elected?
Republicans are going to make hay of the fact that she is so closely aligned with Biden and that she was part of keeping it (his health issues) from the public, his particular status that required him to resign from a party perspective. It's also the case that she's had trouble campaigning in the past, she doesn't do it well; that's not to say she hasn't learned a lot from being VP.
But here's the point. She doesn't have a lot of time to convince people who are skeptical of her that she's a different kind of candidate. Because there's only 100 days until the election. And that's really not that long in terms of politics. After all, in some states, they even start voting in September for the president.
You've also talked about women as being one of the main swing factors in the selection, especially with the issue of abortion on the ballot in Florida in November. Do you think this will motivate more women to get out and vote and maybe swing some potential women voters?
Without question, Amendment 4, the abortion amendment, will spike turnout among women. And the hope that's long been expressed by Florida Democrats is that maybe they aren't enthusiastic about the top of the ticket. Now, does that include Harris? We don't know. But the premise is that they will vote for the Democrat at the top of the ticket because they're more aligned with, to these women who are going to be voting yes on it with their views on the abortion issue itself. The question is how much? And the big question overlaying the reproductive rights emphasis as polls are still showing that above all the economy, inflation, grocery prices, is still what is motivating most people, including women, to be thinking about voting.
So all in all, if those are the top issues that people are saying, economic issues are always at the top of people's concerns. If people were inclined to vote for one candidate or another because of economic concerns, does this really change that?
I think a few percentage points. And that may be enough again to help out some down-ballot Democrats and their races. Overall, the Biden withdrawal does, I think, mean that the race itself is going to be tighter than one had anticipated if he had stayed in.
But it probably won't mean that the Democrats would carry Florida, in your opinion, does it?
That's a long shot still. Because the key is that growing margin of registration. The edge is clearly going to the Republicans, and Democrats started this year with a big push to try to close the registration gap. But instead, the gap has widened in the direction of the Republicans. Again, we have a sizable portion of our electorate that are no party affiliation. Many of those are the younger voters. But it's not likely that all the younger voters are going to be on the same page. If they were, it could probably tip the election in one direction or another. But because the young vote itself seems to be split from a partisan perspective, I think what we can expect here is a tightening of the race, not a Democratic victory and statewide races.
Any other thoughts you have on this development?
We are experiencing a roller coaster ride in this year's election; some candidate goes up and falls down and other one goes up and falls down. People's emotions are being drained and pulled in one direction or another. And I do anticipate that between now and November we're going to see a lot of 180-degree shifts in what the focus of the electorate is on what issues and even in some of the polls.
