There are several key races in Tuesday's primaries that you'll want keep an eye on. Three involve Tampa Bay area congressional seats. WUSF's Steve Newborn spoke with political reporter and analyst William March to give you a preview of what to watch.
WUSF: There are some very interesting races in the primary coming up. Let's start out with the congressional races, particularly in Pinellas County, where Anna Paulina Luna is coming off her freshman term and is facing some Democratic opponents during the primary.
MARCH: There are five Democrats filed in the primary. The person who I think you would have to say as the apparent front-runner is Whitney Fox. She's a local native, formerly communications executive for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, and she is backed by, really, a large number of the most prominent local Democrats, including Democratic congresswomen. She also has raised the most money of any Democrat, though her campaign fund is still dwarfed by Luna's. As of the end of July, Luna had eight times as much cash on hand as Whitney Fox.
Also in that primary is Liz Dahan, who has some strong credentials as a Washington insider, an international business consultant, a legislative aide to Sen. Tom Daschle, worked in the consulting firm for Madeleine Albright. But her history in the Tampa Bay area is comparatively scant compared to Whitney Fox, and for that reason, Dahan has not made as much progress in the primary as one might have expected. Then a third candidate, Sabrina Bousbar, a young woman, a Generation Z Latina, and a Pinellas native, and she has gotten significant support from young Democratic organizations, plus the local Sierra Club. So those are the three leaders in the primary, and I would have to say that Whitney Fox looks like the front-runner.
Let's jump across the bay to Congressional District 15. This includes Hillsborough County and parts of Lakeland and Pasco County. The incumbent Laurel Lee had a bit of a tussle with the Trump campaign because she was basically appointed to her (former) position as Secretary of State by Ron DeSantis, and felt she had to stick around and back his campaign for president. Has that changed?
Yes, that rift has been healed over. Lee did not have much choice but to back Ron DeSantis in the presidential primary, he had gotten her political career rolling by appointing her as Secretary of State, so she was the only Republican member of Congress who backed DeSantis in the primary. Well, of course, that angered Donald Trump, and shortly before the filing deadline, he sent out a tweet asking for a good MAGA-style Republican to run against Lee. And a couple of them instantly responded and filed in the primary to run against Lee. But then Lee made a pilgrimage down to Mar-a-Lago and patched things up with Trump, and he has since endorsed her.
Still, he put out a call for a couple of challengers who will be in the Republican primary here, right?
The one who is still very much a dark horse against Laurel Lee, but he's the only Republican challenger who looks likely to make any kind of a mark against her, is James Judge. He is a Tampa public relations executive, strongly conservative, heavily religious, anti-abortion, pro-Trump, Republican. He ran against Kathy Castor in 2022. There's a second Republican candidate, Jennifer Barbosa, not getting as much attention or support as judge, but Lee is clearly the 800-pound gorilla in that race, and the winner will be facing Pat Kemp, the Hillsborough County Commissioner, who was term-limited, and is the only Democrat in the race.
The only Democrat in the race for District 14, Kathy Castor, has been there for around 20 years now. She has never won her district with less than 60% of the vote. It was gerrymandered to include parts of St. Petersburg that traditionally vote Democratic. So she'll be facing one of four Republicans after the primary. Do you think any of them have a chance?
They are four pretty much unknown Republicans, plus a Libertarian and one No Party Affiliated challenger. Castor is seeking her 10th term, and as you noted, her district has been arranged, and this was done by the Republicans who control districting in Florida. Her district has been arranged to concentrate as many Democrats as possible into one district so that all the surrounding districts can go Republican. Essentially, she's been granted a lifetime seat by the Republican Party so that they can maintain control of the delegation. And result of that is that she has never won a general election with less than 60% of the vote. It's usually been 70% or more.
"Essentially, she's been granted a lifetime seat by the Republican Party so that they can maintain control of the delegation. And result of that is that she has never won a general election with less than 60% of the vote."William March
In Hillsborough County, there is a primary for the state attorney on the Democratic side. Short story here, Andrew Warren was removed from office by Gov. DeSantis for pledging not to enforce certain laws, and he's up against a contestant. Tell me about her.
His opponent is Elizabeth Martinez Strauss. She doesn't have much of a chance against Warren. She filed because he had been removed from office by DeSantis, and she thought that she would then offer an alternative. And at the time, he was hanging back as to whether he was going to file to run again, but he then decided to go ahead and run. He stayed in the race, but Warren has become basically a celebrity among local Democrats, something of a martyr for having been removed from office, he says, illegally by Ron DeSantis, and I think that status pretty much guarantees him a win in this primary.
"Warren has become basically a celebrity among local Democrats, something of a martyr for having been removed from office, he says, illegally by Ron DeSantis, and I think that status pretty much guarantees him a win in this primary."William March
And whoever wins will face off against Republican former judge Suzy Lopez, who was appointed to the post by Gov. DeSantis. So that looks like to be a spirited contest come November.
No question that will be a tough race. Warren, of course, has been elected to the office twice, and some would say Democrats would say that makes him the front-runner. But Lopez has strong support within the legal community and strong fundraising, and will have strong financial support if she needs it from the Republican Party.
