In theory, Obama appears to be winning the early vote in Florida.
Democrats are leading Republicans 43 to 40 percent in early voting and absentee ballots returned. That's according to the United States Election Project.
And that's with one more day of in-person early voting left.
But Republicans have reason to be pleased. They've closed the gap compared to the last presidential election.
Democrats led 46-37 in this metric in 2008. And Obama only won the state by 3 points.
Historically, the Election Day makeup of the electorate tilts more Republican.
Finally, about half of all votes here are expected to be cast before Election Day.
Despite a big effort to increase absentee balloting, Democrats can't seem to repeat their margins from 2008.
Two possible reasons: 1. A much better Republican GOTV operation.
2. Gov. Rick Scott and a GOP Legislature cut back on early voting, leading to long lines and fewer chances to early vote in person -- a Democratic strength.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
