Hurricane Forecasting

It has been an unusually active final month for the hurricane season, when forecasters typically see a single named storm every year or two. And the 2024 season still has two weeks to go.

They added two named storms and a major hurricane to their outlook, primarily because of near-record warm Atlantic and Caribbean waters and a lack of strong vertical wind shear.

A saildrone, SD-1041, deployed to intercept Hurricane Beryl sent back photos, video and data from the major storm on Tuesday. As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Beryl was 422.5 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

Meteorologists stress considerable uncertainty remains in such long-range forecasts but that they also reflect a sign of evolving science and constantly improving understanding of tropical weather systems.

It’s only February, but sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are already hitting early summer levels, a worrying trend that could indicate an active hurricane season ahead — or another marine heat wave.

The National Hurricane Center is rolling out an experimental version intended to address those issues by adding new layers of threats and a lot more colors.

The National Hurricane Center will add inland predictions to its forecast of the location and ferocity of tropical storms.

They're looking for ways to better alert the public on how to act on severe weather alerts after many didn't need evacuation warnings during Hurricane Ian.

This Atlantic Hurricane season, forecasting tech takes another leap forward with the introduction of a new, more accurate hurricane model developed by NOAA.

Forecasters at the Colorado State University Tropical Weather and Climate Research Group say the 2023 season could feature below average storm activity. They also report that the forecast could change over the next few months.

The National Hurricane Center said in an update of its products that two-day outlooks will still be available in addition to the new seven-day outlook.

On this week's Florida Roundup, we discuss Florida's troubled property insurance industry, along with Andrew Warren's trial against Gov. DeSantis and how hurricane forecasting could change.