University of Tampa economics professors explain how tariffs could impact the economy
By Lily Belcher
May 22, 2025 at 5:00 AM EDT
University of Tampa economics professors shed light on what President Donald Trump’s tariffs could mean for the economy – and you.
President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs at the beginning of April. Since then, he’s backpedaled on some of these levies and launched trade talks with other countries in an attempt to come to an agreement on lower prices.
Between turbulent import taxes and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, there’s some uncertainty about what this means for the economy.
WUSF's Lily Belcher spoke with University of Tampa economics professors Michael Coon and Abby Hall Blanco about what tariffs could mean for your budget
Blanco: So these tariffs are incredibly economically inefficient, and they ultimately make goods and services more expensive for U.S. consumers as well as foreign consumers. And ultimately, they make things more expensive for many domestic businesses to produce as well.
Abby Hall Blanco (446x567, AR: 0.7865961199294532)
At what point after a tariff goes into effect for an item should I expect to see an increase in the price?
Blanco: It depends on the item. So things like agricultural products, where they spoil relatively quickly and there's a high rate of turnover, that we would anticipate seeing those price changes relatively quickly. Others may take a little bit longer for us to see the effects, but certainly within six months or a year, you would expect to see a potentially significant difference in prices.
Do you expect those things to be more expensive even if the tariffs don't go into effect?
Blanco: Now, if the tariffs are completely withdrawn and they don't go into effect, then certainly I would expect to see that those prices might be in alignment with expectations of what we've seen previously. But there's some other questions here, I think, surrounding what other countries are going to do with respect to the United States as a trading partner.
The U.S. government has recently indicated that it's not maybe as reliable of a trading partner as it has been historically, and so to the degree that certain countries start to look elsewhere for trading relationships, or more stable trading relationships, that might impact the equation too.
How are these trade deals changing the cost of goods?
Michael Coon (331x450, AR: 0.7355555555555555)
Coon: The deals that I've seen struck so far were along the lines of, we raised tariffs on you really, really high, and now we're going to lower them, but they're still much higher than they were before. So, for example, the deal we made with the United Kingdom — it reduced the tariffs on cars from 25% to 10%. Prior to the increase in tariffs, it was closer to 3%.
Why are small businesses seeing a bigger effect than some of those national corporations?
Coon: They don't have a lot of leeway in terms of being able to absorb the extra costs. You know, you have a store like Walmart that maybe is paying a 10% tariff now on bananas. They might not raise their tariffs by 10% on the bananas, necessarily. They might raise banana prices by 5% and maybe raise cereal prices by 5% when cereal is not being tariffed. They might just go across the board.
What about some of those big items, cars, furniture? How are those getting hit right now?
Coon: Chances are a lot of the cars and appliances and furniture that are on the dealership floors or in the stores right now were manufactured and brought into the country before the tariffs were announced. And so those items that they have right now, you might not see the price increase immediately. You might not see the price increase on those goods for another few months.
But in terms of consumer behavior, it might be a good idea. If you think the price of the furniture is going to go up next month and you need a new couch or a new table, it would make sense for you as an individual to go out and buy it now, before the prices go up.
Is it going to be cheaper for me to buy American-made goods?
Coon: Now, historically, that's the main point of tariffs. The tariff was meant to protect American companies from these imported goods. But basically, what the tariff does is it raises the price of the imported good either to an equal level with the American-made good or slightly higher level with the American-made good.
So if they raise the price of the imported goods to a higher price than the American-made goods, yes, it will be cheaper for you to buy the American product than the imported products, but it's still more expensive than if you were able to buy the imported product without the tariff.
Between turbulent import taxes and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, there’s some uncertainty about what this means for the economy.
WUSF's Lily Belcher spoke with University of Tampa economics professors Michael Coon and Abby Hall Blanco about what tariffs could mean for your budget
Blanco: So these tariffs are incredibly economically inefficient, and they ultimately make goods and services more expensive for U.S. consumers as well as foreign consumers. And ultimately, they make things more expensive for many domestic businesses to produce as well.
Abby Hall Blanco (446x567, AR: 0.7865961199294532)
At what point after a tariff goes into effect for an item should I expect to see an increase in the price?
Blanco: It depends on the item. So things like agricultural products, where they spoil relatively quickly and there's a high rate of turnover, that we would anticipate seeing those price changes relatively quickly. Others may take a little bit longer for us to see the effects, but certainly within six months or a year, you would expect to see a potentially significant difference in prices.
Do you expect those things to be more expensive even if the tariffs don't go into effect?
Blanco: Now, if the tariffs are completely withdrawn and they don't go into effect, then certainly I would expect to see that those prices might be in alignment with expectations of what we've seen previously. But there's some other questions here, I think, surrounding what other countries are going to do with respect to the United States as a trading partner.
The U.S. government has recently indicated that it's not maybe as reliable of a trading partner as it has been historically, and so to the degree that certain countries start to look elsewhere for trading relationships, or more stable trading relationships, that might impact the equation too.
How are these trade deals changing the cost of goods?
Michael Coon (331x450, AR: 0.7355555555555555)
Coon: The deals that I've seen struck so far were along the lines of, we raised tariffs on you really, really high, and now we're going to lower them, but they're still much higher than they were before. So, for example, the deal we made with the United Kingdom — it reduced the tariffs on cars from 25% to 10%. Prior to the increase in tariffs, it was closer to 3%.
Why are small businesses seeing a bigger effect than some of those national corporations?
Coon: They don't have a lot of leeway in terms of being able to absorb the extra costs. You know, you have a store like Walmart that maybe is paying a 10% tariff now on bananas. They might not raise their tariffs by 10% on the bananas, necessarily. They might raise banana prices by 5% and maybe raise cereal prices by 5% when cereal is not being tariffed. They might just go across the board.
What about some of those big items, cars, furniture? How are those getting hit right now?
Coon: Chances are a lot of the cars and appliances and furniture that are on the dealership floors or in the stores right now were manufactured and brought into the country before the tariffs were announced. And so those items that they have right now, you might not see the price increase immediately. You might not see the price increase on those goods for another few months.
But in terms of consumer behavior, it might be a good idea. If you think the price of the furniture is going to go up next month and you need a new couch or a new table, it would make sense for you as an individual to go out and buy it now, before the prices go up.
Is it going to be cheaper for me to buy American-made goods?
Coon: Now, historically, that's the main point of tariffs. The tariff was meant to protect American companies from these imported goods. But basically, what the tariff does is it raises the price of the imported good either to an equal level with the American-made good or slightly higher level with the American-made good.
So if they raise the price of the imported goods to a higher price than the American-made goods, yes, it will be cheaper for you to buy the American product than the imported products, but it's still more expensive than if you were able to buy the imported product without the tariff.