It will be a record-hot weekend across many parts of Florida with highs between the mid-to-upper 90s, but the humidity will make it feel as high as 115F. Heat advisories were in effect on Friday for parts of South Florida and the National Weather Service may issue more heat advisories throughout the weekend.
Let’s talk records – Scorching weekend
Record hot temperatures will be tied or broken in the day and night. There are over two dozen stations scattered across Florida that could be tied or broken throughout the weekend, including Monday morning. Lows will struggle to drop below 77 degrees with many places in Southwest and the Tampa Bay area that will not even drop below 80 degrees. Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, and Tampa could tie records on Sunday and Monday morning if the low temperatures only drop to 80 at night.
Afternoons will likely reach record-hot temperatures in at least 12 stations across Florida. All of Florida will be hot, regardless if records are broken or not. Highs across Central and North Florida will be the hottest, reaching the upper 90s. Gainesville will reach 97 and 98 degrees on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Sanford will be very close to 100 degrees. The previous record was 99 degrees, established in 2006. South Florida will have highs in the mid-90s, but with the humidity, temperatures will feel as if they were around 105F.
Tropical downpours move in next week.
Weather models vary on the arrival of the deeper pockets of moisture. As we discussed earlier this week, the moisture will emerge from the western Caribbean and will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will inch closer to Florida moving from south to north. Showers will move in fast at times and they will likely become more pronounced as the week progresses. At the moment South Florida will likely receive the first rounds of showers early Monday morning, but the pocket of deeper tropical moisture will be focused west of Florida and could travel north, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We have to monitor closely the evolution of this area as it could pick up more moisture and take it with it to the Panhandle. Of course, if the richer moisture stays offshore, over the Gulf of Mexico, it will take a bit longer to travel northward, so the heaviest downpours will arrive late in the week.
Heavier downpours will be scattered, so rainfall could vary from place to place. Rainfall through Tuesday will be the heaviest across South Florida. Some isolated spots could receive over 3 inches of rain. While parts of Southwest Florida will range between a quarter to an inch of rain. Expect the rainfall to increase by Wednesday for Central Florida and then across North Florida and the Panhandle through the end of the week. Longer range models show that much of the state could get around 2 inches through next Thursday, with some spots receiving higher amounts. These are very rough estimates as tropical moisture is very tough to track. Regardless there could be some areas dealing with flooding. Please don’t drive through flooded roads, as the water could be deeper than expected.
We are following the movement of this moisture and all the rain moving with it. Stay tuned and check back for updates.
