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Helene could bring up to 8 feet of storm surge for Tampa Bay

A red cone showing the storm turning into a Category 3 hurricane before hitting Florida's panhandle.
Spectrum Bay News 9
/
Courtesy
Tropical Storm Helene track as of Tuesday afternoon.

Although Helene could potentially bring up to 8 feet of storm surge for Tampa Bay, the storm's quick pace may actually limit the amount of rainfall. There could be up to 15 feet of storm surge for the Panhandle.

With Tropical Storm Helene expected to become a Category 3 hurricane when it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely bring a powerful storm surge to the west coast.

Spectrum Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay said Helene will rapidly intensify as it quickly moves toward the Big Bend area where it is expected to make landfall.

He said storm surge could be between 4 and 8 feet around Tampa Bay.

"It'll be passing by, and that'll push water up on the west coast of Florida," he said.

The storm surge could be between 6 and 10 feet in Pasco County, and as high as 15 feet along the Big Bend-Nature Coast region.

But Clay has some good news for Tampa: The storm will potentially move in so fast that it doesn't have time to push water up into the bay. It may also come in at low tide.

Helene’s speed may actually limit the amount of rainfall, Clay said.

"All hurricanes rain at about the same rate. There's not really much difference. The only thing that is the difference is how long they linger, and you get those rains. And so, this one won't be lingering long," he said.

The potential sustained winds of a Category 3 between 111 and 129 miles per hour would be right around the eye wall, about 25 miles from the center.

After making landfall in the Panhandle on Thursday evening, Clay expects it to dissipate over Georgia.

My main role for WUSF is to report on climate change and the environment, while taking part in NPR’s High-Impact Climate Change Team. I’m also a participant of the Florida Climate Change Reporting Network.
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