Hurricane Helene made landfall late Thursday night on September 26, leaving an endless destruction trail extending for over 600 miles through the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley and over 120 deaths over the Southeast, including 29 reported as of Monday in Florida. Thousands are still without power across Florida, mostly over North Florida, where Helene crossed. Many more are cleaning up their homes and businesses after storm surge raised water levels, contaminating and damaging everything.
What's happening weather-wise this week?
The remnants of Helene fused with an upper-level low pressure and spent the weekend over Tennessee. This system is starting to move and is expected to finally move away from the U.S. and over the Atlantic being pushed of by the next low pressure system with a front sweeping over the Great Lakes and ultimately arriving to Florida.
Residents and cleanup crews will not only have to brave Florida's (still hot) summer-like temperatures, with heat indices near or above 100 F, but the heat will also spark the sea breezes that will drive thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. These thunderstorms will halt some cleanup efforts, especially across West Central Florida, where the heaviest rainfall is forecast during the next five days.
The high-pressure system that dominated the southern half of Florida over the weekend is moving further away from the Sunshine State, allowing a weak cold front to move from the north. This cold front is creating instability and funneling the storms from the Tampa Bay area through Southwest Florida during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
This front is moving very slowly, and another trough will move in from the north, keeping the instability present across parts of North Florida and Central Florida. The Tampa Bay area should pay close attention to the forecast and plan accordingly; as the fronts lose speed, they will move slowly and sag for longer over Central Florida. Therefore, more showers and storms are forecasted. Some areas across Central Florida could receive 8 and 10 inches of rain between Tuesday and Saturday.
Those in cleanup efforts should monitor the weather closely. The afternoon storms will bring rounds of lightning. If you hear lightning or see a thunderstorm building nearby, make sure to stop outdoor activities and seek shelter.
How are the tropics?
The National Hurricane Center continues to watch several systems have formed and gained force. Luckily, the ones with names (there was Isaac, Joyce—losing force, and Kirk, strengthening) are all over the open Atlantic and are not expected to impact land.
The broad low-pressure area known as the Central American gyre, which typically appears during the early summer and then again during the early fall, is still active. Spinning over Central America, this broad low-pressure system often drives tropical low pressures to develop from the main broad area. There is a disorganized system that could continue to brew in the western Caribbean, which the NHC currently gives a medium chance to develop later this week. As we always remind readers, if there is no well-defined center of circulation, models will not have a good grasp of outputs. This means that one run could have a hurricane forming, and the next run of the same model could give you nothing. The atmosphere is fluid, and any change in this fluid changes the outcome. Plus, if something were to develop in the same area where Helene was born, it doesn't necessarily mean it would strengthen or move in the same direction. We will continue to monitor closely and bring you more information if this system becomes better organized.
