Heavy rains are headed for the greater Tampa Bay region with light showers starting as early as this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking a low pressure system that is tracking north and east from the west Caribbean toward Florida's Gulf Coast. There is a 70% chance of development over the next 48 hours, according to a Saturday morning forecast.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or Sunday while it moves east, an 8 a.m. forecast from the center said. The system is expected to move east or northeast and strengthen as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Those along the Gulf Coast and the Florida Keys should monitor its progress, forecasters said.
Regardless of its status, National Weather Service meteorologist Rick Davis said the system brings the threat of heavy rainfall and flood concerns to the Tampa Bay region.
"If it develops, or even if it doesn't develop, it's going to be a very slow system, a very sloppy system ... that is going most likely produce some heavy rain for the Tampa Bay area and southwest Florida," he said.
It's forecasted that the system could bring 4 to 8 inches of rain across different parts of the Tampa Bay region. Rainfall estimates could double if the system slows over Florida's central Gulf Coast.
Weather experts are also monitoring a southbound cold front that could slow the tropical system as it attempts to move across Florida's peninsula, Davis said.
"There is going to be a cold front that's going to drape into the deep south, or northern Gulf of Mexico. And that's going to hinder the system's northerly movement."
If that counteraction significantly slows the system over Florida's Gulf Coast, forecasts show the worst case scenario could bring between 10 and 30 inches of rain from Hernando to Sarasota counties, according to excessive rain predictions from Friday.
Davis said that while it's not the most likely scenario, it's important that people are prepared.
"We've seen (that) weather can impact people's lives dramatically," he said. "And we don't want people to let their guard down."
There's currently a heightened risk of flooding across the Tampa Bay region in the wake of Hurricane Helene. Davis said the already-wet conditions make any rainfall a dangerous primer for flash flooding, including in areas farther inland.
"Our ground is so saturated from Hurricane Helene and from an above normal rainy season that any additional rainfall that we get could certainly make any flooding conditions worse," he said. "We just need people to remain aware of the flooding threat."
Public officials across the region began storm preparations on Friday ahead of the weekend's wet weather forecast.
On Friday, Pinellas County communications officer Barbra Hernandez said that residents should prepare for the potential downpours like any other significant weather event.
"If you're in an area that is particularly saturated, or traditionally floods, things such as moving your vehicle to higher ground, making sure you are signed up for ... alerts, monitoring the local weather will be activities that will help you be prepared," she said.
Hernandez said that Pinellas County procured six additional vactor trucks, which clean sewer lines, and is staging several other water-draining trucks across the county.
The city of Tampa and Sarasota County announced the temporary reopened sandbag sites. Officials also recommend reusing sandbags that have not come in contact with water.
Pasco County Emergency Management is preparing for the possibility of street flooding during next week's expected rain event, according to a public information officer.
"Our main areas of concern are the areas prone to localized flooding during rain, mainly the City of Zephyrhills," according to an emailed response.
Following Hurricane Debby, a slow-moving Category 1 hurricane that produced lots of rain, several neighborhoods in Zephyrhills including Sutton Oaks, Silver Oaks and Betmar Acres experienced prolonged flooding. Floodwater crews were draining water up until the day Hurricane Helene made landfall, according to the county's emergency management director Andrew Fossa.
Across the region, public works teams are clearing storm drains and, in some cases, lowering water levels. On Friday morning, Manatee County utilities workers slowly lowered levels of the Lake Manatee Dam in anticipation of next week's rain event, according to a press release.
Officials are also reminding residents to avoid driving or wading through flooded waters and urging people to heed local weather warnings through next week.
