The forecast is fine-tuned, and we expect the heaviest rainfall to fall over parts of South Florida on Monday. The peninsula will start to receive impacts of the low-pressure system approaching the Sunshine State overnight into Monday.
The Panhandle can expect a few rain showers to move in Sunday evening and the morning hours Monday; the heaviest precipitation will stay offshore but will continue to travel east-southeast.
By sunrise Monday, some downpours could travel along Interstate-75 from North Florida toward Central Florida. By early afternoon, some scattered thunderstorms could be moving along the southern half of Florida. Nonetheless, South Florida would have already received rounds of showers in the morning.
South Florida is forecast to receive heavier downpours and some isolated intense storms between 11 a.m. and the afternoon. Although we’re not expecting widespread severe weather, some thunderstorms could have damaging gusts of 58 mph or more since the bulk of the moisture will travel over South Florida. There could be some areas where flooding develops.
Overall, we’re expecting a coding of rainfall that could reach 1 inch across north Florida through Central Florida. Some isolated spots, especially across Central Florida, could reach 2.5 inches. For South Florida, the rainfall could range between 1.5 and 2.5 inches. But there could be some isolated amount with 4 inches.
Remember that Florida has only received 1.48 inches of rain this year, specifically for the station at Miami International Airport. This is below average for this period, with a deficit of over 2.5 inches.
As this system progresses, expect gradual clearing along the entire peninsula, improving from north to south Monday night. However, South Florida will still experience scattered rain showers overnight Monday and Tuesday morning.
By Tuesday afternoon, the peninsula will be dominated by north winds, which will also bring lower humidity and comfortable temperatures.
Tuesday and Wednesday will remain with below-average high temperatures along most of the peninsula. The high will be around the low 70s across Central Florida and between the mid- to upper 70s across South Florida. Low’s will remain slightly above average all week for this time of year.
Another cold front is expected to cross the state Thursday night, reinforcing the cooler, dry air along Florida to finish the week.
