Prepare yourselves for what could be another active hurricane season this year, according to an early forecast issued this week.
Scientists at the Climate Adaptation Center in Sarasota said warm sea temperatures and low wind shear could contribute to the predicted 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, five of them major.
Bob Bunting, the nonprofit's CEO and atmospheric scientist, said there's also likely going to be less dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert.
"And when we have less dust, we have more hurricanes," Bunting said.
That's one factor. Then add mid-level moisture and you've got an increased chance of storms forming.
"There's a couple of paths,” Bunting said. “One is out to sea, which we really like. And the other one is kind of up the west coast of Florida again."
He said the hurricane season, which starts June 1, might be slow at first but will likely pick up in the second half, just like it did last year.
“It seems like October is what we worry about the most. And you can see the tracks … kind of put Florida in play,” Bunting said, “So, July and October are the two months right now that I am most concerned about, and this goes on into November.”
The Caribbean and the Gulf are the main focus areas, with Florida continuing to be a high-risk zone.
The National Hurricane Center’s new baseline for number of storms is now an average of 14 per year, but Bunting said when you look at the last decade, it’s actually more like 18.
“Matter of fact, we never had a year with 14 in the last 10 years. It's because the climate is changing so fast that the averages are underplaying the real risk,” he said.
“We’re behind the eight ball of what it actually is, and we're designing for the climate of the past, not the climate we have or are likely to have.”
The nonprofit analyzed data from 2015 to 2024 that shows an upward trend in storm frequency and severity.
The CAC laid out some actions you can take to prepare for hurricane season: create an emergency plan, build a hurricane kit, review your insurance policies, prepare for power outages, know your evacuation routes and shelters, protect important documents, prepare your vehicle, and have a post-storm plan.
