Climate change is going to cause disproportionate economic harm to parts of the United States that are already pretty hot, according to a study published in the journal Science.
The study by scientists and economists from the Climate Impact Lab suggests rising temperatures could increase a national income gap.
In south and southeastern states, higher temperatures mean higher costs: for electricity, crop loss, reduced worker productivity. And, for human lives. The scientists say thousands more people will die every year in southern and southeastern states because of heat-related causes.
People in the Northwest, Midwest and Northeast might fare better. Mainly, warmer temperatures there might mean better crop yields.
But the scientists say the overall impact on America’s gross domestic product, the total value of stuff we produce in a year, would be negative. The damage done to south and southeastern states’ economies would outweigh benefits elsewhere.
“You see a similar pattern internationally, where countries in the tropics are more heavily impacted by climate change,” lead author Solomon Hsiang, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, told The New York Times. “But this is the first study to show that same pattern of inequality in the United States.”
The study didn’t look at potential effects of heat-related migration — like, someone moving from Florida where it’s hot to New York where it’s cooler. And researchers say they couldn’t account for how technology developments — like heat-resistant crops or cheaper air conditioning — might make the country's economy more resilient.
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