SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Of all the issues at play this election year, the economy seems to be the one where Vice President Kamala Harris is having the most trouble gaining an edge over former President Donald Trump - that is, despite the good week the Biden administration had on the economy - a surprisingly strong jobs report and a White House broker deal to end what could have been a crippling dockworker strike. Joining me now to talk about what this could mean for Election Day - which, again, less than a month from now - we've called NPR's Mara Liasson. Hey, Mara.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Hey, Scott, happy to be here.
DETROW: Mara, before we look ahead, let's just recap what all happened this past week in the economy because a lot happened.
LIASSON: The big thing that happened was the jobs report on Friday that showed the economy made 254,000 jobs, and wages went up faster than prices did. So that's a very, very big deal. The other good thing politically for Harris was that the dockworker strike was settled with help from President Biden. And of course, a long strike could have disrupted supply lines, made food prices go up, so that's another piece of good economic news. This is all on top of the fact that we've seen 3% GDP growth. We saw the Fed cut interest rates by half a point, and inflation is now about where the Fed wants it to be, in the 2% range.
DETROW: Right. There's a lot trending in the right direction. And yet, you have seen the public opinion for years, and certainly the last few months - a feeling of uncertainty and a feeling of nostalgia for the pre-COVID, Trump-era economics as opposed to what's happened under the Biden administration. Is there anything Harris can do about that in the final weeks of the race?
LIASSON: Well, I think she can. I mean, she can call attention to the good things that are happening, but she has to do it very carefully. There has to be a balance between cheerleading, pointing out the good things about the economy and sympathy with people who don't really feel it. Inflation is the most important economic indicator politically. And people don't care about the rate of inflation; they care about prices. And they don't care that inflation is coming down if they still feel that prices are up. And in many cases, they're still higher than they were a year ago.
DETROW: Yeah.
LIASSON: But gas prices are low. And what we do know is that even though polls show that voters think Donald Trump is better on the economy than Kamala Harris, his advantage on that issue is getting smaller.
DETROW: So she's closing that gap on that key issue.
LIASSON: Right.
DETROW: Her favorability ratings are much higher than the former president's. There's many other metrics as well - campaign fundraising, things like that. And yet there is this constant dread and worry among so many Democrats who want to see Harris to win. We're less than a month from Election Day. What are the big factors you are looking at, Mara?
LIASSON: The biggest factor is what you're describing. This is a race that is extremely tight. It's tied. We have never had a race that's been this close for this long since the start of modern polling. And my question is, why can't either of these candidates break out and create a true lead, an outside-of-the-margin-of-error lead? She hasn't been able to do it, even despite all these things that are trending her way. There could be many reasons for that. I think being African American and a woman is a barrier. Donald Trump can't break out. He hasn't been able to develop a true lead, even though polls still show that - one poll I saw, 61% of people think that the Biden administration has been a failure; 55% think that the Trump administration was a success.
DETROW: Yeah.
LIASSON: You know, you talked about that retrospective rosy view of the Trump years, even though when Trump was the president, he was very unpopular. We are a deeply divided and evenly divided country. In 2016 and 2020, Trump performed better on Election Day than he was polling. Since the Dobbs decision, we know that in every single race, Democrats have performed better than they were polling. We don't know which candidate is being under-polled right now.
DETROW: Well, we do know that over the next few weeks, millions and millions of people will actually be casting their ballots. That's NPR's Mara Liasson. Mara, thanks so much.
LIASSON: Thank you.
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