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How could the next president change the course of the wars that Israel is fighting in the Middle East? Well, as NPR's Daniel Estrin reports from Tel Aviv, U.S. elections are already making a difference in Israel's calculations.
DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: It's no secret that Israel's right-wing leaders hope former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.
TALLY GOTLIV: (Speaking Hebrew).
ESTRIN: Tally Gotliv, a lawmaker in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's party, told NPR at a rally, of course I don't want Kamala Harris, who thinks we're committing a genocide in Gaza, to be elected. The Vice President has not said Israel is committing a genocide. A poll of Israelis this week found only 17% favor Harris. Sixty-six percent favor Trump. Both candidates want a quick end to Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon but in different ways, says Shmuel Rosner, an Israeli commentator on American politics.
SHMUEL ROSNER: I think with Kamala Harris, Israel will probably expect a more confrontational approach that aims to, in some ways, tie Israel's hands. With Donald Trump, it seems as if Israel is going to be somewhat freer to pursue the war the way it wants to do it without putting too much restrictions.
ESTRIN: A Harris administration in Israel would struggle to find common ground on post war Gaza. Harris has said there should be no reduction to Gaza's territory, while many in Israel's right wing are calling to seize at least part of Gaza's land after Hamas' attack last year.
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AMIT SEGAL: (Speaking Hebrew).
ESTRIN: Amit Segal, a commentator perceived as being close to Netanyahu, said on Israeli TV, if Trump is elected, Israel may, quote, "change the borders of the Gaza strip as punishment for what happened on October 7."
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Speaking Arabic).
ESTRIN: In Gaza, NPR producer Anas Baba met Aladin Abu Haseira looking for flour rations.
ALADIN ABU HASEIRA: (Speaking Arabic).
ESTRIN: He said Trump and Harris are, quote, "the same thing. Nothing will change. They're both watching us die." Regarding the West Bank, Trump's former ambassador to Israel has a new book advocating Israel annex that occupied territory. Palestinian analyst Ibrahim Dalalsha of the Horizon Center thinktank says Harris would oppose West Bank annexation but would not solve the core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
IBRAHIM DALALSHA: That would be, like, a smarter conflict management kind of policy, but I don't expect it to be a strategic intervention to resolve the conflict.
ESTRIN: The Biden administration has stepped up efforts to resolve the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza. Any achievement could help Harris in the elections. Nadav Strauchler, a political strategist who previously worked closely with Netanyahu, says Netanyahu is waiting.
NADAV STRAUCHLER: In the current situation, it could have done more to help this administration to gain more points, maybe, but he won't run to do it right now. I don't see rushing for a deal until the election. He will wait. So this is something that doesn't help his administration and maybe somehow does help Trump.
ESTRIN: Iran is one front where the identity of the next president could matter most. After Israel's bombing of Iranian air defenses last week, Israeli officials are beginning to promote an idea that used to seem out of the question, bombing Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities. Israel would need U.S. support to do that.
HASEIRA: Netanyahu sees it as the story of his life to change the situation with Iran. I think he was waiting for the election, and he seek for the option to finish this threat.
ESTRIN: He thinks Netanyahu sees a better chance to do that with Trump in office. But this might be Netanyahu's big ask no matter who is in the White House next. Daniel Estrin, NPR News, Tel Aviv. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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