Below is a quick guide to the groups to pay closest attention to on election night. They could tell the story of how — and why — former President Donald Trump or Vice President Harris wins.
You can read the full version — charts and all — by clicking here.
- Watch the number of white voters who go for Harris. They're the largest single voting group, but with growing Latino and Asian American populations, they make up an ever smaller share of the electorate.
- The split among white voters by education has been the story of the Trump era and is only growing. White voters with college degrees had long been reliable Republican voters, but Joe Biden won them narrowly in 2020.
- Mind the gender gap. Democrats won 57% of women, their largest share, in 2020, and they hope that figure will be even higher this election — the first presidential race since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
- Does Trump cut the margins with Black voters? Black voters make up only 13% of the vote nationally but are crucial to Democrats' chances in swing states, especially Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan.
- Despite his rhetoric, can Trump peel off Latinos, or do they ultimately side in big numbers for Harris? Latinos are the largest-growing group in the U.S. and make up an increasing share of the electorate in key swing states.
- Watch Asian Americans and Pacific Islander margins in Nevada, Georgia and elsewhere. Asian Americans, the fastest-growing demographic group, have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats since 2008.
- Do young voters turn out — and vote for Harris at rates they have for past Democrats? When Democrats win, young voters turn out, as 2008, 2012 and 2020 show. Harris has been lagging with the group in preelection polling.
- Will Harris be the first Democrat in a quarter century to win seniors? Harris could be the first Democrat since then-Vice President Al Gore's bid in 2000 to win voters age 65 or older. She needs them to turn out at high rates to offset Trump's strength with white, non-college-educated voters.
- Union voters could make a difference in "blue wall" states and Nevada. Union voters are becoming younger and more white-collar — not entirely the stereotype of white, male working-class voters of the 1960s.
- Does Trump turn out rural voters again, and does Harris overperform in the suburbs? The suburbs have been trending toward Democrats, while rural areas have been solidly Republican for decades. Biden cut into Trump's margins with rural voters in 2020, which Harris hopes to repeat.
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