MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Russian leader Vladimir Putin says his country has the right to retaliate against NATO countries that arm Ukraine.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Yeah. Putin made this direct challenge to the West in televised remarks yesterday.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
MARTÍNEZ: There he is saying Russia will respond accordingly to any NATO country that allows its weapons to be used to strike Russian facilities. It's the latest instance of Putin taking an even more aggressive posture toward Ukraine and the West.
MARTIN: To hear more about what this could mean, we're joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Greg, good morning.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Michel.
MARTIN: So Russian missile strikes are a daily occurrence in Ukraine, but one yesterday was particularly significant. Why was this different?
MYRE: Yeah, Michel, shortly after the missile hit the central city of Dnipro on Thursday, the Ukrainians said this was a missile they hadn't seen before - one that releases multiple warheads as it approaches the target. Now, here in Washington, the National Security Council described this as an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile. It said the warheads carried conventional explosives, though they could deliver a nuclear weapon. And this was a very calculated move by Russia. The Pentagon said Russia did give the U.S. a heads-up shortly before the missile was launched.
MARTIN: What message is Putin trying to send here?
MYRE: That Russia is prepared to escalate, and NATO could become a target. Putin linked the Russian missile strike directly to Ukrainian attacks earlier this week, when Ukraine fired American and British missiles into Russia for the first time. Putin went on to say that Russia has the right to strike these NATO countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russia, so a very direct challenge to the U.S. and European allies that are arming Ukraine. We should also note that Putin this week lowered the threshold for Russia to use nuclear weapons, saying they could be employed when the country faces a critical threat - which is obviously a very subjective term.
MARTIN: It does feel like every day this week has brought some kind of significant and even ominous development. Are we at a particularly dangerous moment?
MYRE: So that's what Michael Kofman says. He's with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He recently returned from Ukraine, where he's been visiting regularly since Russia's 2022 invasion. He says the events this week come as Ukraine is still struggling to halt a Russian offensive in the eastern part of the country.
MICHAEL KOFMAN: In the last three to four months, the Russian military has been advancing at the fastest pace it has since the early part of the war. Without effectively stabilizing the front and exhausting the Russian offensive, momentum could accumulate behind the Russian war effort.
MYRE: So he noted the Russians are suffering massive casualties and can't sustain this pace indefinitely. But right now, they do have the upper hand.
MARTIN: OK, but how about the Ukrainians? How are they coping?
MYRE: Yeah. Kofman says the war is taking a cumulative toll on soldiers and civilians. Here's how he put it.
KOFMAN: Everyone I spoke to still has a strong will to fight. But there's a general sense of pessimism which is difficult to avoid, looking at the situation Ukraine finds itself in and the current trajectory of the war.
MYRE: And as Ukrainians look ahead, Michel, they see additional challenges. President-elect Trump takes over in two months. He wants negotiations to end the war. But Kofman said we shouldn't assume Putin will negotiate. He doesn't think Putin will negotiate seriously if he believes he's gaining ground. And also, Ukrainian civilians are expecting another long, hard winter, with their electricity grid under Russian attack.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Greg Myre. Greg, thank you.
MYRE: Sure thing, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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