LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Syria's nearly 14-year civil war has taken a dramatic turn. A group once linked to al-Qaida led a surprise offensive that seized Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo. And now Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is pushing south toward the capital Damascus at a time when Bashar al-Assad's primary allies, Russia and Iran, are stretched thin - Russia with its war in Ukraine, and Iran and its regional partners preoccupied with confrontations with Israel. Joining me to discuss what all this means for Syria and the region is the last serving U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford. Ambassador Ford, good morning, and thanks for being on the program.
ROBERT FORD: Good morning. It's nice to be with you.
FADEL: So you were there when this all started. And for years now, the Syrian civil war was at this uneasy stalemate. And frankly, it looked like President Bashar al-Assad had won, holding on to his seat of power. What's changed that this surprise offensive from Assad's opposition succeeded?
FORD: Well, the key thing that changed is that Assad's external supports, Russia and Iran, are distracted in other battles, whether that be in Ukraine or in Lebanon. Russia and Iran saved Assad in 2013 and again in 2015, but now they don't have as quick an ability to respond to help Assad.
FADEL: So how vulnerable is he? I mean, does HTS and its allies in the opposition have the man power and the unity to topple his government?
FORD: I doubt that Assad can make a counterattack to retake Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, but I also doubt that the HTS-led opposition fighters can get all the way to Damascus. That seems very unlikely to me.
FADEL: So what does it say then about the regional dynamic here? I mean, we watched officials from Turkey, which backs the opposition, and officials from Iran, which back Assad, hold a joint press conference calling for reconciliation between Assad and these opposition forces. Is the regional power dynamic changing before our eyes?
FORD: Well, two things. First, in the next weeks, I anticipate we'll see a new ceasefire to replace the ceasefire that the Turks and the Russians worked out in 2020 with the agreement of Iran. So I expect a new ceasefire with new ceasefire lines probably farther south, and that leaves Aleppo in control of the opposition. Second, looking higher up more strategically, Iran is definitely weaker in the region, including in Syria - definitely weaker. Turkey - with, frankly, the help of Israel and the Israeli air force, Turkey is now stronger in Syria, and that has changed the dynamics on the ground a bit.
FADEL: So then are you just describing a different kind of stalemate?
FORD: Yes. I don't think that the Assad government is going to make serious political concessions in a new political negotiation. That's what the Turks were talking about at the press conference with Iran yesterday. And I doubt very much that Iran is going to urge President Assad to make deep reforms to bring in, say, a coalition government instead of the Assad loyalist government that is in Damascus now.
FADEL: What does this development mean for U.S. interests in the region?
FORD: Well, American interests in Syria now are very limited. American forces operate in the far eastern part of Syria closer to Iraq. And they haven't been much engaged in fighting, although there was a little bit of American airstrikes with some fighters on the ground today in eastern Syria. I think the most important thing for the United States is to help Syrian civilians, refugees. And it would be good for the United States to help work for a ceasefire.
FADEL: Do these developments in Syria further destabilize a region that feels like it's already on fire?
FORD: They do change the reality on the ground, but I think we will see stability reassert itself for at least a period in Syria. But the civil war is not finished.
FADEL: Robert Ford was the last serving U.S. ambassador to Syria. Ambassador Ford, thank you for your time.
FORD: Thank you so much. Nice to be with you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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