LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Syrian rebels are continuing their sweep south. And yesterday, they stormed the strategically important city of Hama on the way - on the main highway to Damascus. In just over a week, they've nearly doubled the territory under their control. That's raising questions about how vulnerable President Bashar al-Assad's regime is. NPR's international affairs correspondent, Jackie Northam, reports.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: For several years, Syria's long-running civil war between the Assad regime and opposition fighters was at a stalemate. But late last week, the conflict dramatically reignited when a patchwork of rebel groups seized control of Syria's second-largest city of Aleppo and then, days later, the central city of Hama. There was very little resistance from government troops.
JULIEN BARNES-DACEY: I think it is the story of the regime's structural weaknesses being quite brutally exposed.
NORTHAM: Julien Barnes-Dacey is director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
BARNES-DACEY: The country has been crumbling, and the regime's strength has been under severe pressure.
NORTHAM: Barnes-Dacey says for years, Syria could rely heavily on Iran and its proxies - such as Hezbollah - as well as Russia to back up its military. But he says they're now stretched thin fighting conflicts of their own.
BARNES-DACEY: And I think with the Russians and the Iranians distracted and under pressure elsewhere, the carpet was really quite dramatically pulled from beneath the regime's feet with this unexpected rebel offensive.
NORTHAM: Nonetheless, Assad's instinct was to appeal to his closest allies, says Mouaz Moustafa, who heads up the Syrian Emergency Task Force, which is pushing for democracy in Syria.
MOUAZ MOUSTAFA: Bashar al-Assad left Damascus and went directly to Moscow and spent a few days there, and only returned to Damascus on the day that the Iranian foreign minister was landing in Damascus.
NORTHAM: Russian fighter jets began pounding rebel targets in Aleppo and the rebel stronghold of Idlib in the north. Iran sent in militias, mostly from Iraq. But it's unlikely Damascus or Moscow will provide large or any numbers of troops, says Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist at the University of Oklahoma Center for Middle East Studies. He says this time, Assad may have to rely more on pro-government forces to battle the rebels.
JOSHUA LANDIS: Now, they may not be able to prevail because they're exhausted.
NORTHAM: Landis says it'll be difficult to rebuild the regime's fighting force. Crippling international sanctions have decimated Syria's economy. There's a 90% poverty rate. There are chronic shortages of electricity and other state services.
LANDIS: So the perspective of most Syrians is just very bleak, and they don't want to die for this regime. Assad is tone-deaf. He doesn't know how to speak to his own people. He's not inspiring. He's not charismatic. He's out of touch with Syrians completely.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED REBELS: (Cheering).
NORTHAM: There were signs of jubilation after rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, swept into Aleppo and on through Hama. The Islamist HTS had past links to al-Qaida, but has since cut ties with the group and has promised to be more inclusive of other religious groups in Syria - including those from Assad's own Alawite community. There have been many diplomatic efforts in the past and now to resolve the Syria quagmire among regional players, including Arab nations and Turkey, which is implicitly backing the HTS rebels. But Barnes-Dacey said Assad has never shown an inclination to compromise during his more than 20 years in power.
BARNES-DACEY: He was in a far worse situation in the early days of the Civil War, and he hunkered down and he battled through. And, frankly, he has far deeper and wider regional and international support today. So I think he will not see this as a moment to step down - to back down.
NORTHAM: The question is, how long will this support last as rebels continue their advance towards the capital, Damascus?
Jackie Northam, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
