MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal announced today is intended to end the most intense fighting ever between these bitter rivals. The Gaza war has unleashed dramatic changes across the Middle East since it began on October 7, 2023. That is when Hamas launched a cross-border attack on Israel. Israel responded. So let's consider a couple big questions - how widespread has the impact of the conflict been, and what might it mean for the future of the region? For answers, we are joined by NPR's Greg Myre in Tel Aviv. He's covered the region for many years. Hey, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise.
KELLY: Before we explore what it means, recap what it is. What are the details of the ceasefire deal?
MYRE: It's supposed to take effect Sunday. The fighting is supposed to end in this first phase, which lasts six weeks. And during this period, the Palestinians - or Hamas, rather - will release 33 hostages - some alive, some dead - from the nearly 100 they still hold. Israel is expected to release perhaps 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. Also, Israel will reduce its military presence in Gaza, but it won't end it. A full withdrawal will come in a later phase, when all hostages are released. If all this works, the war ends, but lots can go wrong. More than 50 Palestinians were killed today. Still lots of requirements for both sides.
KELLY: OK, so many, many bridges to cross. But just step back and talk us through how much the Middle East has changed since this war broke out back in 2023.
MYRE: Yeah, on that day, there was this fundamental regional dynamic that had been in place for many years. On one side, you have Israel, backed by the U.S. On the other, you have Iran and its partners - Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria. Yet in just the past few months, Iran and all its allies have suffered severe blows - an Israeli offensive greatly weakened Hezbollah, which agreed to a ceasefire in late November. Just a couple weeks later, the Assad regime crumbled from rebels inside the country, and Hamas has been badly beaten. So Iran's strategy for decades was to use these Arab partners to undermine Israel. This strategy is now in tatters. Israel, with the U.S. backing, has proven itself a much more formidable military force than Iran and its allies. This will reshape the region for years to come.
KELLY: Although, I mean, I suppose you could argue it the other way as well - that Israel has also suffered major damage to its reputation. I'm thinking of - what? - more than 46,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza.
MYRE: So that is absolutely true, and the damage extends far beyond the region and just anger in the Arab world. It includes many Western countries, and Israel needs these countries for political support, trade relations and just to avoid international isolation. So Israel won't go back to its prewar status easily or quickly, and a lot will depend on how the Israelis address Palestinians. Will Israel work with the international community to rebuild Gaza, offer the Palestinians a way forward that could lead to a Palestinian state? Or will Israel keep squeezing the Palestinian with a wide range of punitive steps? - which is what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done throughout his years in office.
KELLY: Let me circle us back to the Israel-Iran rivalry, which, as you noted, has driven so much of turmoil - so much turmoil in the region for generations. What should we expect there?
MYRE: Yeah, this could go different ways. Iran's strategy of working with proxies has failed badly. Iran doesn't have the resources to support them as it did for many years. So Iran could drop that approach and pursue a more moderate course. Iran also has to think about the incoming Trump administration, which sought to impose what it called maximum pressure, with sanctions against Iran last time. Iran may be forced to make compromises in exchange for sanctions relief. Now, of course, this could go the other way, and we could see a new round of confrontation. Iran could try to build a nuclear weapon, seeing that as its best defense.
KELLY: In just a sentence or two, Greg, what are you watching for as President Trump takes office?
MYRE: Well, he continues to be a staunch supporter of Israel, wants to pursue economic deals with wealthy Gulf countries. He's much less interested in the kind of messy conflicts we've been seeing, but he will have to deal with them in some form.
KELLY: NPR's Greg Myre, reporting in Tel Aviv tonight. Thanks, Greg.
MYRE: Sure thing, Mary Louise. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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