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India's Modi will have to tread lightly to avoid Trump triggers at tomorrow's meeting

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

During the first Trump administration, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a rock star greeting when he visited the United States.

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NARENDRA MODI: Good morning, Houston.

(CHEERING)

CHANG: Modi reciprocated months later with a Namaste Trump rally in India's largest sports stadium.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Namaste. Namaste.

(CHEERING)

CHANG: The Indian prime minister is set to meet Trump in Washington tomorrow, but the fondness between the two may have faded. NPR's Diaa Hadid reports from Mumbai.

DIAA HADID, BYLINE: In the weeks since inauguration, President Trump has threatened allies with tariffs. He wants to take Greenland from NATO ally Denmark and make Canada the 51st state. Watching this from New Delhi, the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, appears to have decided to defuse potential triggers for Trump.

MILAN VAISHNAV: The mood in Delhi is not to engage in a tit-for-tat retaliation. Their view of it is, let's take the high road.

HADID: Milan Vaishnav is director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. One key flashpoint - tariffs. Trump's complaints about India's high tariffs have made headline news here.

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PALKI SHARMA: Donald Trump called India, and I'm quoting, a "tariff king."

HADID: So last week, India slashed tariffs. Then there's migration - consider Trump's inauguration speech.

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TRUMP: We will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens.

HADID: Indians form the third-largest cohort of people in the U.S. without legal authorization - over 700,000 people, according to the Pew Research Center. Indian officials quickly made it clear that the government will accept deportation flights as it did during the Biden administration, but this time round, the optics were different. Last Monday, over 100 Indian nationals were deported on an American military plane. They say they were handcuffed and shackled to their seats for over 40 hours. It triggered outrage in India's Parliament.

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VICE PRESIDENT JAGDEEP DHANKHAR: Please take your seat.

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HADID: One opposition legislator told the minister of external affairs...

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SAKET GOKHALE: What baffles me is that the minister seemed more focused on defending the U.S. deportation policies than the interest of our own citizens.

HADID: The minister, S. Jaishankar, responded...

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S JAISHANKAR: Our focus should be on strong crackdown on the illegal migration industry while taking steps to ease visas for the legitimate traveler.

HADID: Taking steps to ease visas for legitimate travelers - it appears a major concern for the Indian government is a visa category called H-1B. It brings skilled foreigners to work in the U.S., and it's dominated by Indians, many who work in tech. It's an important visa for India because there's not enough local jobs for skilled workers. But this visa category has created one of the biggest divides within Trump's MAGA movement.

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STEVE BANNON: The H-1B visa program is a total and complete scam.

HADID: That's Steve Bannon on his podcast, the "War Room," in late December. He argues companies use the visa to undercut wages for American workers by bringing in foreigners who accept less money. Elon Musk says the H-1B visa attracts top talent. There's also brewing unease over the very foundations of the U.S.-India relationship as a linchpin against China. That concern chiefly comes from Trump's closeness to Elon Musk. It was compounded after Trump raised tariffs on China by an extra 10%, less than what New Delhi expected. Vaishnav again, of the Carnegie Endowment.

VAISHNAV: Because of Elon Musk's private ventures - Tesla and the investments that they have made in the Chinese market - there is a concern that, under Musk's influence, Trump could strike some kind of rapprochement with China. That would leave India out in the cold.

HADID: Something Modi will try to avert in Washington by ducking, weaving and defusing potential Trump triggers. Diaa Hadid, NPR News, Mumbai. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Diaa Hadid chiefly covers Pakistan and Afghanistan for NPR News. She is based in NPR's bureau in Islamabad. There, Hadid and her team were awarded a Murrow in 2019 for hard news for their story on why abortion rates in Pakistan are among the highest in the world.
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