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What options the U.S. has to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Israel is also dealing with the potential that Iran could develop nuclear weapons. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam looks at President Trump's options to ensure that that does not happen.

JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: To hear President Trump tell it, the options for dealing with Iran and its nuclear weapons program are limited. Here he is on Fox News.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: There's two ways of stopping them, with bombs or with a written piece of paper.

NORTHAM: Last month, Trump signed an executive order to restore his so-called maximum pressure campaign to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon by targeting its oil exports. Trump has said he believes Iran is open to negotiations after suffering a series of military and strategic defeats against Israel. Trump told Fox News Iran is very concerned.

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TRUMP: I think Iran is very nervous. I think they're scared. I think Iran would love to make a deal, and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them.

NORTHAM: During his first term in office, Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - the JCPOA. It was a multilateral deal aimed at restricting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. It's unclear what kind of deal Trump is looking for this time around, says Dana Stroul, a former Pentagon official now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

DANA STROUL: Are they going to negotiate only on the nuclear program? Or are they going to also ask Iran to rein in all of its support for these terrorist groups?

NORTHAM: Stroul says there's been a shift in Iran's alliances since Trump was last in office. There's a less confrontational relationship with Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia. Stroul says Tehran has also developed stronger ties to Moscow and Beijing, which were part of the JCPOA.

STROUL: Russia, China and Iran have strategically deepened how they work together to circumvent U.S. sanctions. They're increasing their military and defense technology exchanges. They're deepening their commercial interactions.

NORTHAM: The other change since Trump was last in office is Iran's nuclear program has advanced.

SANAM VAKIL: Iran is today considered a threshold state. It hasn't weaponized, but as reported by intelligence agencies, it's weeks away from weaponizing.

NORTHAM: That's Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at Chatham House, which is a London-based think tank. She says even though Iran is close to a nuclear weapon, it's more likely to use that as a bargaining chip in negotiations.

VAKIL: It's not in Iran's interest yet to weaponize. I think, right now, the value of its program is certainly higher because it can use it to negotiate.

NORTHAM: Still, last month, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out negotiations with the U.S. There's a push, especially by Israeli hawks, for Israel and the U.S. to take military action against Iran while it's vulnerable. Stroul says last year, Israel took out Iran's air defenses, and with the help of allies, was able to repel a large missile and drone attack. But Stroul says attacking Iran's nuclear program is a whole different thing.

STROUL: Taking out an entire nuclear program, which is as geographically distributed as Iran's is and as deeply buried as many parts of Iran's program are, is much more complicated than one night's worth of military strikes.

NORTHAM: Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a Mideast security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University, says it's also a mistake to think that Iran will agree to anything just because it's had a string of setbacks.

SEYED HOSSEIN MOUSAVIAN: Iranians, always they are very sensitive not to negotiate, not to make a deal, as long as the other side has a feeling of weakness on the Iranian side.

NORTHAM: Mousavian says Trump should think of Iran like an investment opportunity, especially with the country's vast oil and gas resources.

MOUSAVIAN: The real game changer in U.S.-Iran relation is economic engagement because Iran has been under sanctions for 40 years and needs trillions of dollars in investment for economic cooperation.

NORTHAM: And as Trump has shown, nothing is off the table.

Jackie Northam, NPR News.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Jackie Northam is NPR's International Affairs Correspondent. She is a veteran journalist who has spent three decades reporting on conflict, geopolitics, and life across the globe - from the mountains of Afghanistan and the desert sands of Saudi Arabia, to the gritty prison camp at Guantanamo Bay and the pristine beauty of the Arctic.
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