STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Let's review the order of some recent events. President Trump and Vice President Vance berated Zelenskyy in the White House, saying, among other things, that he argued too much and failed to say thank you in that particular meeting. The U.S. paused military aid to Ukraine. Zelenskyy then said publicly the confrontation had been regrettable and that he was on board with a minerals deal and everything else the U.S. wanted. President Trump said he received a nice letter from Zelenskyy. And then we learned the U.S. also had paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine. How does all this look from Kyiv? Robert Hamilton is here. He's the head of Eurasia research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and he's in the Ukrainian capital. Welcome to the program.
ROBERT HAMILTON: Morning, Steve. Good to be with you.
INSKEEP: How are people there responding to the news?
HAMILTON: Well, some people here in Kyiv are, of course, confused, frustrated and a little worried. What it looks like here - and, frankly, what it looks like to me, as well - is the U.S. is putting pressure on Ukraine, the victim of this war, while making unilateral concessions to Russia, the aggressor.
INSKEEP: And when you say unilateral concessions, that's things like making public statements that obviously Russia's going to get to keep Ukrainian territory and that sort of thing, right?
HAMILTON: Exactly. Like, before the U.S. even sat down at the table with the Russians in Saudi Arabia for the first meeting, U.S. officials were making statements to the effect that Ukraine should give up on the idea of recovering its territorial integrity and should give up on the idea of NATO membership. Now, leave aside the fact that it would be difficult militarily for Ukraine to recover its territorial integrity and that NATO membership, although it's been NATO policy since 2008, is still a sticky question for all - for the 32 allies. But you don't give those away as a - as unilateral concessions before you ever sit down with your interlocutor. Those are things that you may give away during a negotiation. But when you give it away before a negotiation starts, you just shrunk the bargaining space and moved it in the direction of your adversary. So you've just ensured that whatever negotiation - whatever it yields will be far more in the interests of the adversary.
INSKEEP: Now, I guess we should note the administration's point of view is they were just stating the obvious - obviously, Ukraine's not going to recover its territory, and that sort of thing. But now we have this recent chain of developments. How vital was the loss of intelligence sharing, which we learned about even after Zelenskyy had said he was on board with the administration?
HAMILTON: Yeah, I think that's the most important, and I think you correctly call it vital. It will have immediate effects, and it'll have immediate effects in terms of lost Ukrainian lives. Two pieces of U.S. intelligence sharing are critical to Ukraine's ability to resist. The first is early warning of missile strikes. The U.S. can see missiles much more - much quicker than Ukrainians can. And so it gives Ukrainians more time to react and to get to cover, both civilians and military. And then the inability of Ukraine to target Russian command and control, logistics and reserve formations - it was getting targeting data from the U.S. that allowed it to interdict Russian rear areas, which made it harder for Russia to press its advantage on the front. Now that will stop, as well.
INSKEEP: Is it clear to Ukrainians what it is the United States wants from Ukraine that Ukraine has not already at least said they would deliver?
HAMILTON: It's not. Ukraine has said - President Zelenskyy here has said the only thing that he's really - his only red line is some sort of post-ceasefire security guarantees, some sort of arrangement that gives Ukraine some confidence that Russia will not resume the war as soon as it's ready. And that's why, in the Oval Office, Zelenskyy - when JD Vance started saying, you - we need to let diplomacy work, Zelenskyy started down the litany of all the diplomatic agreements that Ukraine and its partners - to include the U.S. - had signed with Russia that the Russians had broken, culminating in the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
INSKEEP: Some people around President Trump have talked of replacing Zelenskyy in some way. What are Zelenskyy's supporters and opponents making of that?
HAMILTON: Well, one thing I'll say about the Friday meeting in the Oval Office is Zelenskyy's popularity here is far, far stronger than it was before the meeting. You know, polls here are - they don't often ask directly, do you support the president? They ask confidence and trust. And the latest polls I was able to find before the Oval Office meeting was about 57% support for Zelenskyy. It's certainly higher now - maybe 20- to 30%. We'll have to see when the next polls are taken. But he got a huge bump in popularity, and Ukrainians really rallied around him and rallied around their country. They felt like the attack on Zelenskyy was an attack on their country.
INSKEEP: Just to be clear, when you say 20- to 30%, you mean you think the approval is 20- to 30% higher than it was before...
HAMILTON: Higher.
INSKEEP: ...An overwhelming majority.
HAMILTON: Exactly. Yeah.
INSKEEP: OK. All right. Thanks very much for the insights. That's Robert Hamilton, head of Eurasia research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and he's in Kyiv. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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