The ups and downs
According to the U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2023 estimates of population and components of change, Florida had four of the five fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country from 2022 to 2023, led by the area that includes The Villages.
Anca Voicu, Professor of economics and head of Rollins College’s Women in Finance Program, said the state's growth comes with both opportunities and challenges.
She points to housing affordability, traffic congestion, and resource strains as challenges to population growth.
“In terms of environmental impact, with more people there's going to be more cars, and more cars are going to produce more co2 emissions,” she said. “This will lead to a higher amount of pollution. Clearly, this is going to impact the environment and the quality of life for residents.”
However, Voicu said there are benefits to an increase in population that could have long term positive effects.
“A larger population brings cultural diversity and creates a big social impact. Now what this means is it enriches the local community with new traditions, new cuisines, and new perspectives. More people are going to bring new ideas and skills to the workforce, eventually contributing to more innovation and creativity,” Voicu said.
The impact of Central Florida’s increase in population will depend on how the local community and government manage the associated costs and opportunities to this growth, according to Voicu.
Migration and growth
According to the U.S. Census, about 96% of Florida’s 67 counties grew from 2022 to 2023.
One cause for Florida’s population growth was the pandemic.
“Probably that's when we had the highest influx of population into Florida. And this has contributed to Florida's overall positive net domestic migration,” Anca Voicu said.
The U.S. Census reports that Florida had four of the five fastest-growing metro areas in the country with Wildwood-The Villages leading at 4.7%, followed by Lakeland-Winter Haven at 3.8%, and Ocala at 3.4%.
Only three counties lost population in Florida between 2022 and 2023, including Miami-Dade.
Anca Voicu said more severe hurricanes and climate change may be driving people from South to Central Florida.
“(It’s) part of the reason. It doesn't explain all this migration, but it certainly plays a role. People try to be more protected, and so they wouldn't get as close to the ocean as possible. They try to stay inland as much as they can.”
Overall across the country, the 10 counties with the largest net domestic migration were located in the South.
Keeping up
Central Florida has been dealing with an ongoing affordable housing issue, which could become worse as the population continues to increase.
However, Anca Voicu said it depends on the future rate of growth.
For example, Wildwood-The Villages grew by 7.5% between 2021 and 2022, but only 4.7% between 2022 and 2023.
“We can see that the growth is still happening, but not at the same pace. So it remains to be seen in the few years to come, if this growth will keep increasing, or slowing down, or just simply not happening at all,” said Voicu. “If that's the case, then I don't see an issue with housing. However, if we experience higher growth rates in the near future, the local governments might have to deal with this.”
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