Once again, Americans are able to order free COVID-19 testing kits from the federal government.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services began offering the kits Thursday through the mail. This is the first time since 2023 the kits have been made available through the mail and health experts think it is a sign that federal health officials predict a strong respiratory infection season this winter.
“We may be coming into a time when COVID levels are going to increase,” said Dr. Cindy Prins, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Central Florida. “There's benefits in people getting tested, and there's also an awareness that people are not necessarily going to go out and get tested.”
Those interested in getting tests can receive four free kits through the mail by visiting covidtests.gov.
A sign of a spike to come
Cases in Central Florida are trending downward after a summer spike in the middle of July, according to the Florida Department of Health. In Orange County, testing showed a peak in cases of around 1,800 positive results during the week of July 19. It was the highest case total of the year. Jan. 5 had the second highest with 1,100. The lowest weekly total in Orange County was 130 cases during the week of April 26.
Scientists are still learning the ebbs and flows of COVID case rates. It has defied expectations, behaving differently than other respiratory infections such as the flu or RSV, Prins said.
“We haven't really settled into that point yet of what was expected, where we think that COVID is going to be a winter respiratory infection. Right now, it seems to still have two peaks during the year,” she said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expect the peak of the hospitalization burden of respiratory illness like COVID, flu, and RSV will be similar to or lower than last year, which was about 20 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.
Using this year’s summer wave to forecast future trends, the CDC is expecting a peak weekly COVID-19 hospitalization rate between 7.2 and 9.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 people occurring in mid-January. Over the summer it was about 5 hospitalizations per 100,000.
“That still means plenty of cases for people,” Prins said.
What could change the prediction?
The CDC’s predictions could change, too, due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates.
In Orange County during the week of Sept. 22, 2023, about 10,000 people were vaccinated. During that same time this year, about 280 people received vaccinations. It should be noted that the two weeks before Sept. 22 there were 6,000 and 5,000 shots given. However, the 280 shot total from this year is a dramatic low compared to any week in the fall and winter of 2023 with shot totals ranging between 1,600 to 10,000 shots a week.
“We've definitely seen a drop in vaccine levels. People are not necessarily taking up the vaccine the way they had in the past,” Prins said.
'COVID still isn’t the flu'
Over the years, Prins thinks there’s been a popular mindset for the public that COVID is just part of daily life, but also thinks it’s important to keep in mind that while the virus has changed to be less severe for most people, it’s still dangerous.
“Our experience with COVID is that we see many more people getting hospitalized and dying from it than we typically see with flu,” she said. “I think that accepting it in your life doesn't mean that you should close your eyes to the risk of getting infected with COVID.”
Additionally, Long COVID remains a threat to many. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, about 17 million adults reported having long COVID in April. KFF also found that roughly every 3 in 10 adults who receive COVID report having Long COVID.
The COVID-19 vaccine is free through most insurance plans. They are available and recommended for everyone 6 months and older. They can be found at most pharmacies.
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