Before voters decide the future of abortion rights in Florida in November, four people in a conference room at the Capitol in Tallahassee are weighing in on its potential financial impact on Floridians.
The Financial Impact Estimating Conference is a little known state government panel required to come up with a statement about the financial impact of the proposed Amendment 4 to accompany the language on the ballot. It is a requirement to show revenues or costs for state and local governments.
The panel, made up of delegates from the governor's office, state House, Senate, and the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, has already met for 10 hours but will continue to meet to complete their work. Their next meeting is Monday, July 15.
They must come up with 150 words for what the law calls a “clear and unambiguous financial impact statement.” They also must write up a longer summary and then a detailed report on how they came up with their decisions.
The panel is grappling with a wide range of issues: the financial impact on Medicaid, potential litigation costs, and the economic effects of reduced birth rates in Florida, to name a few.
READ MORE: Judge orders a revised 'financial impact statement' for a Florida abortion amendment
The Florida Supreme Court, with five of its seven members appointed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, ruled 6-1 in April to uphold the state’s ban on most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which cleared the way for a six-week ban. The current law has an exception for saving a woman’s life, as well as in cases involving rape and incest.
The panel had approved the financial statement language but had to rewrite it following the ruling on the six-week ban. Floridians Protecting Freedom, a political committee leading efforts to pass the constitutional amendment, filed a lawsuit arguing that the November statement needed to be revised after April's Supreme Court ruling.
In November, voters will get the chance to enshrine abortion rights in Florida’s constitution. The proposal says, “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
It provides for one exception that is already in the state constitution: Parents must be notified before their minor children can get an abortion.
To get it passed, 60% of Florida voters would have to approve it.
The financial impact on state finances, based on the panel’s public discussion, show the amendment could bring higher costs and could generate potential savings.
The panel seems to agree that passing the amendment would save some money, for example, in the criminal justice system.
“The impact on the criminal justice system is not expected to be significant,” said Chris Spencer, who represents the governor on the panel, during a recent meeting. “We are agreeing, I think, that it's not expected to be significant.”
“I would agree with that,” responded Amy Baker, the state’s chief economist, who also serves on the panel.
Education savings
Another area of possible savings is public education. With fewer babies expected to be born, it would translate into less spending on public schools. The panel estimates a savings of $9,000 a year per pupil.
The panel, however, expressed concerns for some school districts that are already experiencing drops in student enrollment.
Panelists found some common ground on expected legal costs. They all agreed the amendment, if approved, would trigger a slew of costly lawsuits.
“I made a list here and the stuff that I submitted, I mean, 1, 2, 3 ... 20 different statutes that will probably be litigated on whether or not they run afoul of the text of Amendment 4,” said Spencer, the governor’s representative.
“Personally, I think there will be litigation and I do think litigation will be greater than it would have been in its absence,” said Baker, the state’s chief economist. “And that was styled as it's indeterminate because we don't know what to do with this litigation piece.”
The panel then explored the possible cost of lawsuits and how to weave them into the financial impact statement.
“We don't know what the cost is going to be,” said Senate Finance and Tax Committee Staff Director Azhar Khan, another panel member. “Because it depends on who brings the issue when and the complexity of the issue that's been brought. There’s just too much uncertainty right now.”
Medicaid costs
Another looming question to answer: Does Amendment 4 require Medicaid to pay for abortions?
Michigan voters added abortion protections to their state constitution two years ago. In June, a lawsuit was filed seeking to reserve the state’s ban on using taxpayer dollars through the Medicaid program to pay for abortions.
Said Baker: “A probable outcome of this conference is that Medicaid is going to have to include abortion.”
But she argued the Florida proposed amendment bans the state government from taking action rather than granting a right to an abortion, noting, for example, that Floridians' right to hunt and fish doesn’t require the state to pay their costs.
“I don't think anybody is here saying, ‘Oh, we have to buy a fishing pole for everyone and a rifle for everyone because we have this new right to hunting and fishing,” she said.
Responded Spencer: “With hunting and fishing, we're not assuming the state would have to have incurring some costs to go and purchase a fishing line, but if you are providing medical coverage under the Medicaid program for somebody and there is a constitutional right to an abortion, then, why are you denying one type of a medical service over another under that regime if it's a constitutional right?”
If Medicaid were to pay for abortions, it would cost the state money. But that hasn’t been enough to convince Khan that it should be included in the financial impact statement.
The conference could not come to a consensus on the issue.
The proposed amendment would have the impact of further reducing already declining fertility rates in Florida. Consequently, it is likely that the amendment would increase pressure on the state budget by increasing per capita spending, reducing per capita revenues, and potentially affecting the state's credit rating.
Heather Greszler, who represents the Florida House, pushed for the group to include a warning about how the state’s credit rating could be affected by more spending and less revenue.
Again, the panel could not reach a consensus. They agreed to disagree.
WLRN's Sergio Bustos contributed to this report.
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