A new statewide poll shows the U.S. Senate race in Florida is a statistical tie between incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
The new poll of likely Florida voters by Emerson College and The Hill shows Scott leading by a single percentage point over Mucarsel-Powell, 46-45%. Of those surveyed, 9% said they were undecided.
Florida independent voters break for Mucarsel-Powell, 47-34%, while 19% are undecided, according to the poll, which also gives her a six-point edge over Scott among women, 48-42%. Men favor Scott, 51-42%.
The latest poll, released Friday, shows Mucarsel-Powell cutting into a substantial advantage held by Scott. Two previous polls taken in August and July showed him with a 4-point lead, while a poll taken in May had him ahead by 8 points, according to RealClear Politics, which tracks polling data around the nation.
Mucarsel-Powell's campaign touted the latest poll, saying the results confirmed their own predictions of a close Nov. 5 race.
"As public polling shows an increasingly competitive race in Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell continues to gain grassroots momentum against Rick Scott, who is historically unpopular and will face a highly motivated Democratic electorate this November," reads a campaign memo released last week.
Her campaign reports having nearly 200,000 donors, including 12,300 first-time donors.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Florida voters surveyed appeared to be "ticket splitting," noting that former President Donald Trump enjoys a much larger lead than Scott over his opponent.
“There are varying degrees of ticketing splitting in these statewide polls,” said Kimball. “In Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is down by one, even though [Kamala] Harris is behind by five."
Trump leads Harris by 5 points in Florida
The poll found Trump remains very popular among Florida voters. He leads Harris, 50-45%, with only 5% undecided.
In 2020, Trump won Florida's 29 electoral votes, defeating Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by three percentage points, 51-48%. He won statewide by 371,686 votes.
Appearing at a campaign event in Kissimmee on Friday, Scott said Mucarsel-Powell and other Democrats "are turning their backs on freedom and pushing the same socialist policies that have caused destruction and misery in Latin America."
At the event, Scott announced the formation of “Dominicans for Rick Scott” coalition, which is composed of Dominican leaders from throughout the state. He's also said he's gotten support from Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Venezuelans, Ecuadorians, Colombians and Nicaraguans.
The Emerson University/The Hill poll found Mucarsel-Powell leading Scott among the state’s Hispanic voters by 6 percentage points, while Scott was far ahead — 19 percentage points — among white voters.
"There are varying degrees of ticketing splitting in these statewide polls. In Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is down by one, even though [Kamala] Harris is behind by five."Spencer Kimball
Florida voters strongly support abortion rights, legalized marijuana
The Emerson University/The Hill poll also shows 55% support among Florida voters for a constitutional right to abortion, also known as Amendment 4. The measure requires 60% to become law.
Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana in Florida, has overwhelming support — with 64% surveyed saying they would vote yes.
The poll surveyed 815 likely voters in Florida and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
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