Why Florida Democrats failed to connect with most voters well before the elections

Republicans won every major race in Florida on Election Day. But why did Democrats fare so poorly? WUSF talks with Susan MacManus, a political analyst and professor emerita at the University of South Florida, about why the party got trounced at the polls. 

WUSF: I’d like to get your first impressions of what happened during the election and how it affects Florida in general.

MacMANUS: It was clearly an economic vote. We have seen from the beginning of this year, when asked the question, is the nation headed in the right direction, almost two-thirds have said no all the way through up to the election. And in Florida, half of the people, according the exit polls, said that they're, you know, they were, the economy wasn't great. And previous polls have showed, even in Florida, a huge percentage said they're suffering economically, so that takes precedence over all the other kinds of issues. I think where Democrats went wrong was putting way too much emphasis on reproductive rights and abortion. That is important to some people, but consistently, the polls were showing in Florida, it was never the top issue. So you have to win by getting a very, an issue that reaches the largest number of people.

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On paper, this looked like a really good year for Democrats to be running in Florida. A majority of people approved the abortion referendum — but it didn't get the 60% to pass — and women were focused in particular on Harris's campaign. So when you when you take those into consideration, it looks like the future for Democrats does not seem to be too bright in Florida.

Their biggest problem is how to communicate with the younger demographic. Democrats still have the idea that the younger vote is solidly liberal and Democratic, when, in fact, registrants in Florida, 40% were registered as (no party affiliations). I'm talking about Gen Z's and millennials, but almost equal percentages were registered as Democrats and Republicans. And even for young people, the economy was a big issue. And I think the future for Florida Democrats lies with the younger demographic, particularly young women. A lot of them ran for office. But the party just does not have a very good record on how to communicate with the younger voters in this state. They've struggled with it for two election cycles in a row now, and until they deal with that issue and really figure out how to communicate they're going to continue to not do well in statewide elections.

The Republicans added on to their supermajority in Tallahassee. Are Democrats becoming an endangered species in what used to be the country's biggest swing state? They don't seem to have much of a bench.

They don't have a bench, but some of that is a choice, a strategy. Yes, it's important to the party that they field candidates in all 120 House seats and 20 Senate seats. But if you just do that, and you don't give any money or help, or you don't really help people, especially a lot of these younger candidates, know how to campaign, tap into networks, it's not helpful. And so they're spread too thin.

Their strategy would have been better to say, look, we're not going to make a huge comeback. We're going to go one step at a time. But instead, their proclamation day in and day out, was Florida is still in play, Florida is still in play. It wasn't. When you have 1 million more Republican registrants than Democrats, that is hard to say that Florida's still in play.

Let me just speak to the women's vote, because it is very diverse in Florida. The idea that all women are cohesively voting the same page, no, they're not. Registration-wise, I believe the numbers were like 37% registered Republicans, 36% registered Democrats, 24 or 25 NPAs and the rest other. That is not a group that is all going to be on the same page. So there was an expectation of the Democrats have an old idea of Florida, which is, it's your persons of color, your women and your young voters particularly, are cohesively and more prone to vote Democrat. Maybe on some issues, but the economy was just overwhelming. 

I'd like to talk to you about the Hispanic, Latino vote. Republicans made major inroads there, specifically going after the “socialist” label in the Senate race, with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Democrats had in the past believed that this kind of demographic change would favor them. That doesn't seem to be working out, though, does it?

No, it doesn't. And in fact, a very famous scholar who wrote the book about how demographics is destiny has now changed his tune. It isn't turning out that way at all. But as the old saying goes, in politics — and this is what has to be a driving force behind Democrats — is the pendulum often switches from one to another, not fast, but incrementally. And that's where step one is to go back to the drawing board for Democrats, to do some really in-depth focus group work, find out what strategies worked, what didn't. It appears now nationally that all these celebrities didn't do much for bringing in younger voters and making them all vote Democrat. So there's some things that they just need to sit down and talk with real voters, probe deep and as soon as possible.

And conversely, what did the Republicans do right in Florida this year?

Their record of continuing to do outreach and voter registration year-round paid off, and they are very good at figuring out new people moving into new areas, making sure they're contacted, registered or need to change their party. They are very, very good at that and monitoring what issues are elevating at a particular point in time, but the registration is the key.