Strong turnout among Democrats so far and remarkably robust fundraising by a public middle school teacher are making one of Florida's special congressional elections next week tighter than expected for a prominent Republican hoping to replace a GOP incumbent in a comfortably red district.
State Sen. Randy Fine – a Republican firebrand who has openly feuded with Gov. Ron DeSantis and earned an endorsement by President Donald Trump – is facing a Democratic candidate, Josh Weil, 40, of Orlando.
Weil, a teacher at Kissimmee Middle School and single dad of two sons, has raised nearly 10 times more money than Fine, including more than $7 million from donors who gave less than $200 each, generally considered a sign of grass-roots enthusiasm among prospective voters. A new political poll this week of likely voters conducted for Florida Politics showed the race within the survey’s margin of error – effectively a tie.
In early and mail voting so far, through Wednesday, about 12% of the district’s roughly 270,600 active, registered Republican voters have cast ballots – compared to 20% of the district’s roughly 141,500 Democrats, according to real-time tracking by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications.
Even DeSantis is saying that he expects Fine to underperform in the district compared to his own and Trump’s re-elections there – but DeSantis still expects Fine ultimately to win. “The district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it’s almost impossible for someone with an R by their name to lose that district,” DeSantis said.
The race for Florida’s 6th Congressional District is one of two special House elections that will culminate on Tuesday. The district runs from St. Augustine to Daytona Beach along the state’s East Coast. Fine and Weil are vying to replace Mike Waltz, who resigned to become Trump’s national security adviser – and has become embroiled in the scandal in Washington over military plans accidentally shared in a chat group with a magazine journalist.
The other race is the 1st Congressional District in Florida’s Panhandle, a reliably Republican region that hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1995. Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and former state representative, is competing against Democrat Gay Valimont, who lost a race for the same seat in November by 32 percentage points.
Valimont has outraised Patronis in the race, raising almost $6.5 million in campaign contributions and spending about $4.3 million. Trump endorsed Patronis, who raised more than $2.1 million and spent about $1.3 million.
In an interview, Patronis said the two congressional elections in Florida could embolden Democrats in the House to undermine Trump’s political agenda. The GOP holds a slim 218-213 margin over Democrats there.
“This is [Democrats’] Alamo,” he said. “If they can win the Florida Panhandle seat, if they can win the District 6th seat of Volusia County, they stop Congress.”
Patronis said he supports Trump’s immigration goals and wants to complete the border wall Trump proposed. He also supports limits on government spending.
Valimont has focused her campaign on veterans’ care in the Panhandle, which has among the highest concentration of veterans in the U.S. She said the Trump administration’s cuts to federal employment will make veteran care even worse, especially with perceived threats to Medicare and Medicaid. She said voters have also complained to her about expensive property insurance – an industry Patronis regulated – and the cost of living.
“I'm going to go and fight against all of these bad decisions on the part of our president,” Valimont said. “We are being ruled by an oligarch, and that's not American.”
The seat in the Panhandle opened after Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned in an unsuccessful effort to become Trump’s attorney general.
Four hundred miles away, Fine acknowledged in an interview that he is a divisive figure in American politics.
The No. 1 threat to America – more so that a foreign adversary – is the country’s inability to spend within its means, Fine said. He also sees himself as someone who doesn't mind “calling out evil.” He’s enthusiastically embraced Trump’s plans to deport immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
“I'm not interested in sitting around the drum circle and talking about how we can all get along. I want to kick them out of the country,” Fine said. “So, that's divisive, and I'm proud of it.”
Fine scored political points after the arrest of a canvasser, Arlecia Brown, 35, of Palm Coast working on behalf of Weil’s campaign. Brown is facing burglary and theft charges in Flagler County over a stolen bicycle. Weil called the case an unacceptable incident, and added, “The individual is no longer authorized to do any work on behalf of our campaign."
Weil emphasized the high prices that Trump promised during his own campaign to reduce.
“People who are struggling to afford groceries are in a situation that millionaire casino executives can't necessarily relate to,” Weil said. “I'm a single parent of two boys on a teacher's salary. I felt it firsthand when we would go to Walmart to buy groceries, and the boys would fill up a shopping cart… I just can't afford it.”
This story was produced by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications. The reporter can be reached at sophia.bailly@ufl.edu.
