Elections in Florida have become key tests of President Donald Trump's political standing two months into his second White House term.
Two Republican-friendly Florida congressional seats could give the GOP some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. But Democrats in both districts have far outraised their GOP counterparts, and national Republicans have been publicly concerned in particular about the race to replace Mike Waltz, now Trump's national security adviser.
Waltz’s seat representing District 6 covers Flagler, Marion, Volusia and parts of Lake counties. The area also covers Putnam and St. Johns counties.
Candidates on the ballot for the District 6 special election include Trump-endorsed Republican state Sen. Randy Fine, who represents parts of Brevard County in the Legislature, and Democrat Josh Weil, an Osceola County public school teacher.
The election will also fill the vacant seat in District 1, which covers Escambia, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties, along with parts of Walton County. Democratic nominee Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis, who has been Florida’s chief financial officer, are running for this seat.
Here's what to watch as the vote results are reported on election night:
Voting history favors Republicans
Democrats are encouraged by the strong fundraising performances of their nominees to replace Waltz and former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, but the special elections take place in two congressional districts that have long been safe Republican territory.
Trump received about 68% of the vote in 2024 in the Florida Panhandle’s 1st Congressional District, slightly outperforming the 66% Gaetz received in his reelection bid. In the 6th Congressional District on the Atlantic coast, Trump received roughly 65% of the vote, just behind the 67% Waltz received in his final House reelection bid.
The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years. Only Walton County went for a Democrat on one occasion since 1960, although all four voted for Democrat-turned-independent candidate George Wallace in 1968. Today, the part of Walton County that falls within the 1st District is the most reliably Republican of the four counties.
Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the 6th District for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where they both received about 74% of the vote.
Florida: Where to look for signs of a possible Democratic upset
If Democrats manage to pull off upsets in either the 1st or 6th districts, the first indications may be in their best performing counties.
Given the Republican advantage in both districts, the Democrats' best areas are still places where Republicans performed well. In the 1st District, Trump and Gaetz did comparatively the worst in Escambia County, although they still received 59% and 57% of the county vote, respectively.
In the 6th District, Democrats may do best in Volusia County, where Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60%. Republican presidential candidates have carried Volusia in the last four elections, but the area used to be more friendly territory for Democrats, who won the county for six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2008.
Information from Central Florida Public Media was used in this report.
