Tropical Storm Grace formed early Saturday morning and it is poised to take a track that is similar to Tropical Storm Fred before it.
Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for many of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico ahead of Grace. Tropical storm force winds are likely to overspread the Leeward Islands late Saturday night, the Virgin Islands on Sunday, and Puerto Rico by Sunday evening.
Grace is moving rapidly toward the west near 26 mph as of the 5 p.m. Saturday advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
The storm is likely to gradually strengthen in an environment of warmer water temperatures and low wind shear through the remainder of the weekend.
The forecast track brings the tropical storm over or near Puerto Rico on Sunday night and mountainous Hispaniola Monday afternoon and Monday night. If there is direct land interaction, Grace is likely to weaken.
Most of the reliable global models also forecast Grace to interact with an upper-level trough of low pressure and then experience wind shear by the middle of the week. These two factors generally favor a weakening trend.
If Grace manages to miss or spend less time over land, or the wind shear is weaker than currently expected, then it could be somewhere between Cuba and South Florida on Thursday. For this reason, interests in Florida should occasionally monitor the forecasts for possible changes in the coming days.
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