Deep tropical moisture will make its move toward Florida, making for a soggy midweek over a large portion of the state.
A weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico — what meteorologists are calling "91L" for tracking purposes — has a low chance of developing before it reaches Florida late Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of its classification, widespread heavy rainfall should focus on the central and northern parts of the state, but tropical downpours are a good bet in South Florida also. These downpours should become more scattered in nature toward the weekend as the tropical system moves away from the state.
"91L" will have another opportunity to organize in the Atlantic waters east of South Carolina on Friday. Higher seas, rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are the most probable impacts on the coastline. If the system tracks close enough to the coast, heavy rain and localized freshwater flooding are possible. It is also the time of year when the lunar perigee is becoming more favorable for higher astronomical tides, which increases the risk for some coastal flooding in the Lowcountry.
Large Hurricane Larry, located about 800 miles from Bermuda Tuesday morning, is expected to miss the island to the east on Thursday. The large size of the hurricane is causing long-period swell to move westward toward the Atlantic coastline of the United States. Wave modeling is forecasting the first of the swell to arrive Tuesday afternoon, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday, before slowly easing this weekend. Waves that travel long distances carry lots of energy and are capable of contributing to dangerous rip currents. These currents may pull even the strongest swimmers out into the water. Many beaches have a flag warning system designed to alert swimmers to the potential danger. Swim near lifeguards or stay out of the water in accordance with the beach flags.
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