Short-term gain, long-term loss
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting up to 25 named storms, of which more than 4 will be major hurricanes, meaning category 3 and above.
The projected hyperactive season could impact tourism in Central Florida, according to Mike Gunter, Political Science Professor at Rollins College.
“Although, what's interesting is it would have an economic impact of more spending here locally as well,” he said. “I think the long term impact is more negative than it is positive.”
But, Gunter said that does not always immediately show up in terms of economic measures, citing the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill of 1989 as an example.
“Every possible measure was a negative, but all the spending in the clean up, made it look on paper. superficially, like an economic positive,” he said. “So we certainly have had over the years versions of that when it comes to hurricanes in Florida, where the economic spending to try to deal with the aftermath of the damage, makes it look positive.”
Gunter said the biggest selling items are perishable items like Pop Tarts and Beer.
“We're not talking about necessarily economic measures that truly matter. I mean, I like cherry pop tarts and beer too. But that's not what we're talking about in terms of long term sustainable investment in the Florida economy,” he said.
Sustainability is vital as Florida’s population continues to grow.
U.S. Census Bureau data released in March shows Florida had 4 of the 5 fastest growing metropolitan areas in the country from 2022-2023.
Gunter said that population growth is causing extra strain on addressing the problems that come with hurricanes, as development continues across Central Florida.
“All that development has taken away the natural ability of the land to deal with the flooding and the aftermath of the storms. So even here in Central Florida, we think back to Hurricane Ian,” he said. “We were having all sorts of flooding problems across the region, and a lot of that was because we've paved over areas that previously would have allowed us some resiliency to soak up those heavy waters and so there's just no place for that water to go.”
READ MORE ABOUT THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FLOODING HERE
Last days to prep
Last year, Hurricane Idalia caused an estimated $3.6 billion in damages in the United States, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Overall, NOAA reports that 2023 broke the record for weather and climate disasters across the country with losses more than $1 billion.
That’s why Gunter said it is important to prepare for the worst but hope for the best during hurricane season.
“Not taking an action year after year, in and of itself as an action, it's a choice to sit and do nothing,” he said.
Although hurricane season is quickly approaching, Gunter said there are still things you can do now to prepare for the inevitable rain that will come with major storms, like installing a French drain near the doorway of your home or business.
“But I would say, probably the top of the list that I've seen is, you know, your flood risk,” he said. “It just takes one inch of flooding to cause $25,000 worth of damage.”
Gunter said it's also important to have all your important documents, including insurance records, in a dry secure safe.
Withstanding the storm
Adaptation and mitigation projects can help Central Florida cities withstand hurricanes better in the future.
Gunter points to Winter Park, as an example, which in 2005 began investing heavily in undergrounding all electrical wires, with the goal of finishing by 2030.
“The power outages over the last 20 years now have not been as extensive because of that,” he said.
But, Gunter fears there’s not enough of those efforts happening across the state.
“Yes, we need to talk about adaptations. But we're still nowhere near where we need to be in terms of what about 10 to 20 years from now, what are we doing? So that we're not looking at a higher number of economic losses, year after year.”
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