AccuWeather alone has lowered its forecast of the number of named tropical storms during the rest of 2024’s Atlantic hurricane season. But the Pennsylvania-based company is in lockstep with colleagues who predict the hurricane season will become very active -- very soon -- and very likely one of Florida’s most destructive.
“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total,” said Jon Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist. “With such extremely warm waters in much of the Atlantic basin, and more conducive conditions for tropical development expected in the coming weeks, it’s important that everyone is prepared for the threat of more storms this year.”
AccuWeather on Tuesday lowered its forecast of named storms by about 25 percent to between 16 and 20 this year, which is still above the historical average of 14 named storms in the Atlantic basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Colorado State University forecasters, are sticking with their predictions of an extremely busy hurricane season with more than 20 named tropical systems
NOAA and Colorado State’s forecast numbers are identical to their pre-season predictions with one exception: NOAA lowered the top-end possibility of named storms from 25 to 24.
Colorado State University, known for its long-standing tropical weather research program, has maintained there will be 23 named storms.
NOAA and Colorado State meteorologists have been forecasting Atlantic hurricane seasons for decades longer than AccuWeather, which started doing so in 1999.
“The water is incredibly warm near many coastal cities in the United States. Those warm waters can act like jet fuel and help brewing storms explode in intensity,” AccuWeather’s Porter said. “Rapid intensification near the coast is a major concern this fall. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation.”
Debby, Beryl ... and Bueller? Bueller?
AccuWeather made big headlines in March when it published its hurricane season forecast far earlier than normal. In it, the firm predicted the pace of tropical cyclones would produce up to six landfalling hurricanes.
The firm is still forecasting six will make landfall in the U.S.
Two already have.
Hurricane Debby was a Category 1 hurricane that made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida near Steinhatchee on August 5. With maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, it caused more than 300,000 people to lose power.
Debby moved slowly inland resulting in heavy rainfall and flooding across the Southeastern United States
Hurricane Beryl was a powerful Category 5 storm before it dropped to Category 1 at landfall near Matagorda, Texas, on July 8. Before reaching the U.S., Beryl slammed through Venezuela, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, and Mexico.
Beryl was the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. That, coupled with Hurricane Debby's formation later in the season, reinforced forecasters' expectations of a hyperactive hurricane season.
All three major forecasters believed the season would continue and the list of 21 hurricane names prepared by the World Meteorological Organization would run out. It’s happened frequently enough in recent years that there’s now a second list of names, which replaced the use of Greek letters starting with Alpha that was discontinued in 2020.
However, after Beryl and Debby's passage, tropical activity in the Atlantic basin just stopped.
The basin has been unusually quiet for over a month, and no new tropical cyclones are forming immediately. There have been multiple tropical waves, but none have intensified.
This lull has surprised many meteorologists, especially given the favorable conditions present in the Atlantic, including above-average sea surface temperatures.
Then, for the first time in almost three decades, there wasn’t a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin during the Labor Day holiday from Aug. 21 to Sept. 2. That hasn’t happened since 1997, more than 27 years ago.
Forecasters now believe this year’s mid-range may come later in the year, in part due to the mid-season lull of the last four to five weeks, and will run heavily into October or even November.
According to AccuWeather’s forecast, the U.S. has four more landfalling hurricanes of unknown strength to deal with this season, which typically peaks in two weeks.
The sound of silence
August was not supposed to be quiet. It was going to be the on-ramp for a very active September peak and the fast lane to the rest of the busy season.
The initial increase in predicted hurricane activity for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was driven by several climatic and oceanic factors.
Forecasters with NOAA pointed to near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic as a primary catalyst for heightened storm activity. These warmer waters provide the necessary heat and moisture to fuel the development and intensification of tropical systems, making the environment more conducive to storm formation.
Additionally, the expected development of La Niña conditions played a significant role in the early predictions. La Niña typically allows for more organized and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes.
The forecasts were further supported by reduced Atlantic trade winds and lower-than-normal sea level pressure, both of which are favorable for storm formation and intensification.
These conditions, coupled with the ongoing impacts of climate change, which have been linked to more intense and potentially more dangerous storms, contributed to the aggressive early forecasts for the 2024 season
But...
Large plumes of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert have moved across the Atlantic, inhibiting tropical cyclone formation by introducing dry air and increasing wind shear.
Higher than expected wind shear in the Atlantic basin has disrupted the formation and intensification of tropical systems.
The transition to La Niña conditions, which typically favor hurricane development, may be occurring later than initially anticipated.
Despite favorable overall conditions, there can still be periods of relative inactivity due to the inherent variability in weather patterns.
Localized unfavorable conditions: While overall Atlantic temperatures are warm, specific areas where storms typically form may have experienced temporary cooling or other unfavorable local conditions.
2024 hurricanes still on way, they say
Both the National Weather Service and Colorado State University forecasters are sticking with their predictions of an extremely busy hurricane season with more than 20 named tropical systems.
”Ocean warmth usually favors more storm development,”Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, said in May.
The adjustments in forecasts in most seasons reflect the complex and dynamic nature of hurricane prediction.
In 2024, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic remain abnormally high, which typically fuels storm development, but other factors have emerged to counteract this effect.
The delayed onset of La Niña conditions, which usually enhance hurricane activity, has played a role in tempering activity.
Despite any mid-season revisions, all three forecasting entities say the same thing: watch out.
The 2024 hurricane season is still expected to be massive, they say.
Residents in hurricane-prone areas need to remain vigilant and prepared, they say.
And just in case: It only takes one powerful storm to cause significant damage and disruption.
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