As of this week, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season entered its fifth month.
There was much fanfare about a hyperactive season leading up to the beginning of the season on June 1st. That was quickly followed by the explosive and record breaking landfall of Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean and then another landfall in Texas, in July. But soon after, there was a lull in activity and it wasn’t until Hurricane Debby that the season seemed to pick up momentum again.
Satellite view of Hurricane #Debby as it makes landfall and moves inland over northeastern Florida 🛰️🌀 pic.twitter.com/H6ZskJcV3Z
— Zoom Earth (@zoom_earth) August 5, 2024
Debby left a trail of destruction across Florida, Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. But now, with Hurricane Helene's deadly and devastating rampage across the Southeast last week, any hope of a quiet hurricane season for the U.S. has been obliterated.
Report: 90% of homes have been destroyed in #KeatonBeach due to Hurricane #Helene — a bird’s eye view of what remains. @accuweather pic.twitter.com/Yf5A3ZcdAO
— Ali Reid (@alireidtv) September 28, 2024
The National Hurricane Center says October is historically an active month, particularly in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. Southeast coast.
Most experts say that Helene doesn’t have a direct bearing on the rest of the season. But they do say large scale atmospheric conditions are very conducive for tropical formation in the Atlantic basin. And some tropical experts are forecasting the next 2 weeks to be busy with Kirk, Leslie (the storm behind Kirk) and potentially a system in the Northwest Caribbean/Gulf.
Thru 2 Oct, the Atlantic #hurricane season is above average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes & slightly below average for all other parameters forecast by CSU. #Kirk and #Leslie likely to help increase day parameters and ACE relative to normal over next few days. pic.twitter.com/9IoUSSDahL
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 3, 2024
Climatology records show that October and November together have more retired storm names than June, July and August combined. Storm names that get retired are often done so because of the damage or scope of destruction they created. The National Hurricane Center says they will retire particularly noteworthy storm names to prevent confusion with a historically well-known hurricane and a current one in the Atlantic basin. So how do things look so far?
Hurricane experts also say it’s important to remember that it doesn't take a strong hurricane to cause a lot of damage. A slow-moving disorganized disturbance that maybe doesn't quite become a tropical storm can create a foot of rain over an area and create terrible flash flooding. The rainfall threat from tropical systems has historically taken a back seat to the wind threat in people's minds, despite being deadlier.
A reminder that the hurricane season ends November 30th. You can track all the tropics by downloading the Florida Storms app of following the The National Hurricane Center.
