Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center
Último aviso en español del Centro Nacional de Huracanes
Hurricane Milton weakened slightly but remained a ferocious storm Tuesday that could land a once-in-a-century direct hit on the populous Tampa Bay area.
In addition to slamming the region with destructive hurricane-strength winds, Milton is predicted to bring a possible 10- to 15-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay. That’s the highest surge forecast for the location and nearly double the levels reached two weeks ago during Helene.
The storm is expected to bring widespread flooding. In addition to the coast surge, 5 to 12 inches of rain is forecast for the peninsula and Keys, with as much as 18 inches in some places.
"This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding," the National Hurricane Center says.
Utilities throughout the state are planning for a massive number of power outages. Utility and emergency officials have prepared a statewide army of line workers to address the outages, but some locales could go days before restoration.
LIVE BLOG: Latest on Hurricane Milton
Hundreds of thousands of residents, most who live in mandatory evacuation zones, have started a massive getaway, clogging highways and roads throughout the peninsula.
All of Central Florida is under a hurricane warning, including both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Both coasts are under storm surge warnings.
The latest forecast continues to show the storm making landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday near Tampa Bay, which has not had a direct hit since 1921.
However, it is still too early to pinpoint the exact location of landfall. Minor fluctuations to the north or south of the current track will have large implications for Milton’s ultimate path and impacts.
"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles," the hurricane center says.
As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Milton was a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds with stronger gusts in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane was roughly 520 miles southwest of Tampa, moving at 9 mph to the east-northeast. A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected later Tuesday and Wednesday.
Milton had strengthened to a Category 5 with 180 mph Monday as its wind speeds grew by nearly 90 mph in about 24 hours. But it weakened later in the day as it underwent an expected eyewall replacement cycle in the heated Gulf.
Forecasters expect it to weaken to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds before landfall as it encounters winds sheer and drier air in the northern Gulf. However, as it weakens, it will grow in width, exposing more areas to hurricane- or tropical-storm winds.
Milton is expected to bisect the state, bringing widespread impacts to the west coast of Florida first, then to inland counties – including the Orlando area –- and eventually a large swath of eastern Florida.
"The center is likely to make landfall along the west central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday, the weather service says.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has already declared emergencies in 51 counties.
On Tuesday, he assured evacuating residents there’s enough gas for them to get away although the demand for fuel has resulted in gas stations running out quicker than normal.
“There is no fuel shortage. Fuel continues to arrive in the state of Florida” despite long lines at gas stations, DeSantis said Tuesday morning.
DeSantis said officials are working with fuel companies to continue bringing in gasoline. To speed delivery, DeSantis said 27 fuel trucks were escorted Monday night by the Florida Highway Patrol to deliver fuel to stations.
Florida Department of Transportation Secretary Jared Perdue said Port Tampa Bay has received six shipments of fuel since Saturday and that terminals are fully operating.
DeSantis also advised those evacuating that getting away from the surge should be a priority and to use patience in the slow-moving traffic.
“You do not have to get on the interstate and go far away,” DeSantis said. “You can evacuate tens of miles; you do not have to evacuate hundreds of miles away. You do have options.”
To speed evacuating traffic, tolls were lifted Monday throughout the Tampa Bay and Orlando regions, including on Florida’s Turnpike from Interstate 75 to east of Orlando. On major highways, road shoulders were opened to provide additional lanes.
State Division of Emergency Management director Kevin Guthrie suggested evacuations could exceed the 6.8 million people who evacuated in advance of Hurricane Irma, a Category 3 storm that ran up the spine of the state in 2017.
DeSantis didn’t have an estimate Tuesday of people who had already evacuated ahead of Milton but said “it’s a lot.”
“Be prepared that you're not going to be able to go 75 miles an hour to get out of Dodge on the interstates right now. “You probably could have done that in the wee hours of this morning. … It is going to be a little slower. That's just the reality.”
DeSantis said the state has helped evacuate more than 200 health care facilities in Milton’s path and that 36 county-run shelters are open.
As of this morning, Hurricane Milton is still a major Category 4 hurricane. While some weakening is possible before landfall, we expect Milton to be a strong and extremely dangerous storm when it reaches the west Florida tomorrow night or early Thursday morning.
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 8, 2024
Heed all… pic.twitter.com/80Mch7NPvL
DeSantis said the state has been scrambling to remove debris from recent Hurricane Helene, lest the messes become projectiles when Milton strikes. The state has deployed over 300 dump trucks that are working around the clock and have removed 1,200 loads of debris, he said.
After dawn Tuesday, trash trucks trundled up a nearly deserted street in normally bustling Indian Rocks Beach to gather mounds of debris. Sheriff’s deputies used a loudspeaker to urge anyone left to escape as soon as possible from the town on a Pinellas County barrier island.
President Joe Biden issued an emergency declaration, making federal money available to numerous counties and authorizing the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate disaster-relief efforts.
FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell on Tuesday said the agency is moving staff and supplies into place in advance of landfall. She pleaded with residents to listen to local officials for guidance.
“This is an extremely dangerous hurricane,” Criswell said. “I need people to listen to their local officials to get out of harm’s way. … People don’t need to move far. They just need to move inland.”
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. As of Tuesday morning, the hurricane center forecasted that water could reach the following heights if peak surge occurs at high tide:
- Tampa Bay, 10-15 feet
- Anclote River to Englewood, 6-10 feet
- Yankeetown to Anclote River, 5-10 feet
- Englewood to Bonita Beach, 6-10 feet
- Charlotte Harbor, 6-10 feet
- Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, 4-7 feet
- Suwannee River to Yankeetown, 3-5 feet
Information from the Associated Press and News Service of Florida was used in this report.
