On Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center officially labeled the disturbance over the western Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone 15. This label allows tropical watches to be issued, even though the system is still very disorganized. It is close enough to land and threatening more soon, allowing the population to get ready.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Belize through Tulum, Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. This will likely be upgraded to a warning this evening as the system continues to move west-northwest at 7 mph. It is located about 200 miles west of Belize City and will likely make landfall near Belize City or just to the south on Saturday afternoon.
No threats are expected from this system in any region of the United States. Strong and more frequent cold fronts are moving through the continental United States, which are our friends and help keep tropical systems curving away from the U.S. during this time of the year. Nonetheless, remember that we are still in hurricane season, and we should always keep an eye open, monitoring the tropics for any opening between fronts where any rouge-moving tropical system could move through.
What's expected for Belize, Mexico, and northern Guatemala?
Heavy periods of rain will continue to become stronger and more frequent overnight, with the winds increasing, too. Conditions are favorable for this system to become much better organized overnight, and there is a good chance that this system will officially be named Nadine later tonight or early Saturday before making landfall. Once over land, it will quickly dissipate as it passes through some mountainous terrain, putting a good dent in its wind speeds. Still, the heavy rains will continue increasing the chance for flash flooding, landslides, and mudslides through the mountains across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico.
