The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean. In the short term, this area does not have a chance to develop. If anything does develop, it will be by the end of next week when conditions become more favorable for a tropical system to develop. The NHC gives it a medium chance to develop within the next 7 days.
What we know...
Surface water temperatures continue to be very warm across the Caribbean Sea. They are expected to remain low for several days, allowing a low-pressure system to develop. With nothing fully developed, models are not consistent in developing this system, much less on its possible trajectory.
Keep in mind that tropical systems become more scarce closer to the continental U.S. during this time of year. Stronger fronts push through, pushing the tropical systems out to the east or elevating the windshield closer to the US. With more wind shear, tropical systems tend to be weakened or completely dissipated.
What you need to know...
There’s no need to worry right now. Currently, there’s no well-defined system, and any weather models you could run on social media are just one run of one model output. Models do not have a good grasp of this system. Please take it as speculation. Once the system develops, we will better understand a possible trajectory.
Our friends in the central Caribbean should closely monitor its development. During the next week or two, there will be increased periods of rain across parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, as there is much instability and moisture in this region.
